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Position of the Day 07-14-26 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 31 July 2026, at 8:18 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 07-14-26 (Stick)

The consensus reasoning of why we'd hit the third checker now was basically 'more gammons, more backgammons'. My first thought was 'Really, more backgammons?' Sure, technically 'more' but nothing I'm going to care about right? It's three checkers on the bar with an open six point. It can't be substantial at all.

With backgammons out of the Sage Pro explanation I asked myself 'more gammons'? Don't we already just basically win a gammon or lose the game? Also, even if we don't hit the checker now surely we often pick it up later? I didn't see this as an incentive either. And in fact the rollout shows running wins more gammons! So what should be to no one's surprise, the dmp play wins the day. (Hey, there's a revolutionary idea. Maybe we should ask which play wins more games and make that play instead of posturing about more gammons and backgammons?)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 150
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 100
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bBBBBB-AAA--c---ab-cbbA-A-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 63

1.Rollout124/15eq: +1.630
Player:
Opponent:		91.41% (G:82.96% B:1.78%)
8.59% (G:1.27% B:0.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.625...+1.635) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11.0 seconds
2.Rollout222/16* 16/13eq: +1.593 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		90.33% (G:82.00% B:1.98%)
9.67% (G:0.93% B:0.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.590...+1.595) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.2 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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