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Bot Battle #155 - Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 4 August 2026, at 6:01 a.m.

In Response To: Bot Battle #155 Rollout (Jason Lee)





White is Professional

score: 0
pip: 170
9 point match
pip: 197
score: 0

Blue is Hive Mind
XGID=---aa-DaC---cCb--c-dBA--AA:0:0:1:53:0:0:0:9:10
Original position

1.xgRollout1Bar/20 6/3* eq: -0.242
Player:
Opponent:		44.50% (G:11.32% B:0.51%)
55.50% (G:16.02% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.248...-0.236) - [79.2%]
Duration: 11 hours 58 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/22 21/16eq: -0.246 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		44.11% (G:11.01% B:0.45%)
55.89% (G:14.96% B:0.65%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.251...-0.240) - [20.8%]
Duration: 10 hours 28 minutes
3.playedRollout1Bar/20 24/21eq: -0.259 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		43.30% (G:10.18% B:0.40%)
56.70% (G:12.62% B:0.41%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.264...-0.254) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 hours 35 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/22 8/3* eq: -0.273 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		43.93% (G:11.37% B:0.47%)
56.07% (G:16.28% B:0.66%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.287...-0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 10 minutes
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge

Above is Jason's rollout of the original position.

Below are three variants. Altogether, four positions with four best plays represented.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 166
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 197
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aa-D-C--acCb--c-dBA--AA:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 18pt blot is on her 14pt

1.Rollout1Bar/20 24/21eq: -0.274
Player:
Opponent:		43.16% (G:9.95% B:0.35%)
56.84% (G:13.44% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.283...-0.264) - [95.9%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2.Rollout1Bar/20 6/3* eq: -0.288 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		43.70% (G:10.46% B:0.40%)
56.30% (G:16.66% B:0.71%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.298...-0.278) - [2.1%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/22 21/16eq: -0.289 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		43.47% (G:10.57% B:0.42%)
56.53% (G:16.40% B:0.69%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.299...-0.279) - [1.2%]
Duration: 1 hour 30 minutes
4.Rollout1Bar/22 8/3* eq: -0.291 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		43.54% (G:10.44% B:0.43%)
56.46% (G:16.82% B:0.73%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.301...-0.280) - [0.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 34 minutes
5.Rollout2Bar/20 21/18eq: -0.306 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		42.83% (G:10.10% B:0.39%)
57.17% (G:14.96% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.320...-0.292) - [0.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 54 seconds
6.Rollout3Bar/22 13/8eq: -0.324 (-0.050)
Player:
Opponent:		42.50% (G:10.28% B:0.41%)
57.50% (G:15.65% B:0.69%)		Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.342...-0.306) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 17 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 177
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 197
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aa-DaC---dCb--c-cBA--AA:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: A White 6pt spare is on her 13pt

1.Rollout1Bar/22 21/16eq: -0.257
Player:
Opponent:		43.57% (G:10.33% B:0.37%)
56.43% (G:13.25% B:0.59%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.267...-0.247) - [85.9%]
Duration: 44 minutes 11 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/20 6/3* eq: -0.265 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		43.59% (G:10.69% B:0.44%)
56.41% (G:14.43% B:0.61%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.276...-0.255) - [14.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 15 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/20 24/21eq: -0.278 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		42.67% (G:9.37% B:0.37%)
57.33% (G:11.46% B:0.42%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.288...-0.268) - [0.1%]
Duration: 42 minutes 23 seconds
4.Rollout1Bar/20 21/18eq: -0.285 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		42.67% (G:10.16% B:0.35%)
57.33% (G:12.81% B:0.52%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.294...-0.276) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 15 minutes
5.Rollout1Bar/22 8/3* eq: -0.286 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		43.00% (G:10.58% B:0.42%)
57.00% (G:14.60% B:0.63%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.296...-0.276) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
6.Rollout1Bar/22 13/8eq: -0.293 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent:		42.50% (G:10.18% B:0.36%)
57.50% (G:13.12% B:0.57%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.303...-0.284) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 20 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 173
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 197
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aa-DaC--c-Cb--c-dBA--AA:0:0:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White's 13pt is changed to her 14pt

1.Rollout1Bar/20 21/18eq: -0.203
Player:
Opponent:		44.66% (G:11.09% B:0.40%)
55.34% (G:12.51% B:0.49%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.212...-0.193) - [50.9%]
Duration: 55 minutes 29 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 21/16eq: -0.204 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		44.93% (G:11.26% B:0.43%)
55.07% (G:13.88% B:0.57%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.214...-0.195) - [31.3%]
Duration: 56 minutes 10 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/20 6/3* eq: -0.207 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		44.99% (G:11.13% B:0.47%)
55.01% (G:14.70% B:0.58%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.217...-0.196) - [17.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 06 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/20 24/21eq: -0.226 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		44.09% (G:10.33% B:0.42%)
55.91% (G:11.77% B:0.36%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.239...-0.212) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 58 seconds
5.Rollout2Bar/22 13/8eq: -0.228 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		44.02% (G:10.95% B:0.41%)
55.98% (G:13.16% B:0.54%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.242...-0.215) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40 minutes 07 seconds
6.Rollout2Bar/22 8/3* eq: -0.233 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		44.54% (G:10.99% B:0.46%)
55.46% (G:15.17% B:0.65%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.246...-0.219) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 55 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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