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Position of the Day 07-20-26 - Does it matter? - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 6 August 2026, at 10:00 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 07-20-26 - Does it matter? (Stick)

I'm sure it has happened before but I've never noticed it. Note in the rollout that the play listed second, 9, 8, comes in with 0% chance of being the best movie whereas the third play with the same amount of trials still has a sliver of a chance at .1%. This is because there's more variance left in the third play obviously but still interesting to see.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 118
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 119
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BAADB-A---bB-b-cbdbB----:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 54

1.Rollout18/3 5/1eq: -0.563
Player:
Opponent:		34.27% (G:2.54% B:0.04%)
65.73% (G:4.14% B:0.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.572...-0.553) - [99.9%]
Duration: 40.0 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 13/8eq: -0.586 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		33.62% (G:2.24% B:0.03%)
66.38% (G:4.16% B:0.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.595...-0.576) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42.2 seconds
3.Rollout18/4 6/1eq: -0.586 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		33.58% (G:2.01% B:0.03%)
66.42% (G:4.04% B:0.14%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.597...-0.575) - [0.1%]
Duration: 40.3 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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