BGonline.org Forums

Position of the Day 07-23-26 - More odd cubes - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 9 August 2026, at 6:21 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 07-23-26 - More odd cubes (Stick)

Nobody really mentioned/knew our win % with 3 checkers closed out and perfect distribution. It's just over 5%, rollout shown below the original problem. I also tossed on a stronger rollout, +/+/Gigantic, and it was heavily weighted towards a clear pass when I stopped it. (though still not stat sig with lots of variance left in it)

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 75 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 121 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=--a-----a-b-a----b--b-bbbC:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No redouble	Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances:	79.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)	79.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	20.09% (G:3.48% B:1.25%)	20.09% (G:3.65% B:0.76%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.551	+1.108
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:	+0.902 (-0.085)	±0.009 (+0.892..+0.911)
Redouble/Take:	+0.986	±0.017 (+0.970..+1.003)
Redouble/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.014)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		94.2%
Duration: 1 minute 01 second

---

3 Closed out

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 75 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 60 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=----------------a--bccbbbC:1:1:-1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 21

1.	Rollout1	9/6	eq: +0.880
	Player: Opponent: 94.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 5.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.875...+0.884) Duration: 0.6 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 07-23-26 - More odd cubes
  Stick -- Friday, 7 August 2026, at 9:13 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-23-26 - More odd cubes
    Francesco -- Friday, 7 August 2026, at 10:24 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-23-26 - More odd cubes
    ah_clem -- Friday, 7 August 2026, at 4:25 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-23-26 - More odd cubes
    John O'Hagan -- Friday, 7 August 2026, at 4:33 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-23-26 - More odd cubes
    mamabear -- Saturday, 8 August 2026, at 12:21 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-23-26 - More odd cubes - Rollout
    Stick -- Sunday, 9 August 2026, at 6:21 a.m.
    • Position of the Day 07-23-26 - More odd cubes - Alternative rollout
      Philippe Michel -- Tuesday, 11 August 2026, at 1:37 p.m.