| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/10 9/4 | eq: +0,644 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67,08% (G:48,29% B:1,73%)
32,92% (G:6,29% B:0,38%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,637...+0,651) - [99,4%]
Duration: 12 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/3 8/3 | eq: +0,630 (-0,014) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67,19% (G:46,18% B:1,89%)
32,81% (G:6,13% B:0,32%) | Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,621...+0,638) - [0,6%]
Duration: 15 minutes 22 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 8/3 8/2 | eq: +0,620 (-0,024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66,74% (G:46,86% B:2,00%)
33,26% (G:6,36% B:0,36%) | Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,612...+0,629) - [0,0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 09 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 16/5 | eq: +0,618 (-0,026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67,26% (G:44,08% B:1,38%)
32,74% (G:3,86% B:0,13%) | Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,611...+0,625) - [0,0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 37 seconds |
|
| 5. | 4-ply | 9/4 8/2 | eq: +0,551 (-0,093) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63,31% (G:46,76% B:2,52%)
36,69% (G:10,06% B:0,73%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
The cube is on the White side, that means the game may be played until completion (if White decides so). So why not terminate as soon as possible, by slotting our 4 point ?
The favorite sequence, White fans followed by Blue closes out his board is 52%. Nice.
The hit sequence, White hits (but 4-6) are followed by 24 return hits if you don’t forget the banana return hits (like 3-1, 2-1, 3-2) hits (!). Still in the game.
Now compare to killing definitively 2 checkers on the 3 point or on the 2 and 3 points in order to pacmanize the White blots:
Instead of leaving 11 shots (by slotting the 4 point), you leave 5 and 7 return hits (respectively) out of the 11 entries, that’s a lot..
To sum up, for this position, the trade is between trying to win gammon on the second roll (slot, dance, close out ) or on the second roll (dance, pick up as many White blots as possible). Two valid different game plans.
