Does it matter?

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Does it matter? - Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 12 August 2026, at 1:26 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 07-20-26 - Does it matter? - Rollout (Stick)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 118

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 119
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--BAADB-A---bB-b-cbdbB----:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/1 eq: -0.563
Player:
Opponent: 34.27% (G:2.54% B:0.04%)
65.73% (G:4.14% B:0.15%) Conf.: ą 0.010 (-0.572...-0.553) - [99.9%]
Duration: 40.0 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq: -0.586 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent: 33.62% (G:2.24% B:0.03%)
66.38% (G:4.16% B:0.20%) Conf.: ą 0.009 (-0.595...-0.576) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42.2 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 8/4 6/1 eq: -0.586 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent: 33.58% (G:2.01% B:0.03%)
66.42% (G:4.04% B:0.14%) Conf.: ą 0.011 (-0.597...-0.575) - [0.1%]
Duration: 40.3 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below is a contrasting variant.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 119
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--BAADB-A---cB-b-cbcbB----:0:0:1:54:0:0:3:0:10
Variant: A White 6pt spare is on her 13pt

1. Rollout¹ 13/9 13/8 eq: -0.525
Player:
Opponent: 35.68% (G:3.63% B:0.06%)
64.32% (G:5.39% B:0.28%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.531...-0.519) - [99.6%]
Duration: 20 minutes 15 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 8/3 5/1 eq: -0.537 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent: 35.70% (G:2.94% B:0.03%)
64.30% (G:4.82% B:0.15%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.543...-0.530) - [0.4%]
Duration: 19 minutes 11 seconds
3. Rollout² 6/1 5/1 eq: -0.550 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent: 34.95% (G:3.55% B:0.03%)
65.05% (G:5.96% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.558...-0.542) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 43 seconds
4. Rollout³ 8/4 6/1 eq: -0.557 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent: 34.69% (G:3.08% B:0.03%)
65.31% (G:5.55% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.568...-0.546) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 18 seconds
5. Rollout³ 8/3 6/2 eq: -0.592 (-0.067)
Player:
Opponent: 34.16% (G:2.93% B:0.03%)
65.84% (G:5.79% B:0.20%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.603...-0.580) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 49 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91297617
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91297617
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91297617
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller