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Make up your mind VIII - Four Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 12 August 2026, at 3:05 a.m.

In Response To: Make up your mind VIII - Rollout (pierrez)

		White is Joueur 1 score: 0 pip: 129 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 99 score: 0 Blue is Joueur 2
XGID=aBBB-BB-BA--a-aaAbbeb---A-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	16/10 9/4	eq: +0,644
	Player: Opponent: 67,08% (G:48,29% B:1,73%) 32,92% (G:6,29% B:0,38%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,637...+0,651) - [99,4%] Duration: 12 minutes 32 seconds
2.	Rollout1	9/3 8/3	eq: +0,630 (-0,014)
	Player: Opponent: 67,19% (G:46,18% B:1,89%) 32,81% (G:6,13% B:0,32%) Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,621...+0,638) - [0,6%] Duration: 15 minutes 22 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: +0,620 (-0,024)
	Player: Opponent: 66,74% (G:46,86% B:2,00%) 33,26% (G:6,36% B:0,36%) Conf.: ± 0,009 (+0,612...+0,629) - [0,0%] Duration: 15 minutes 09 seconds
4.	Rollout1	16/5	eq: +0,618 (-0,026)
	Player: Opponent: 67,26% (G:44,08% B:1,38%) 32,74% (G:3,86% B:0,13%) Conf.: ± 0,007 (+0,611...+0,625) - [0,0%] Duration: 12 minutes 37 seconds
5.	4-ply	9/4 8/2	eq: +0,551 (-0,093)
	Player: Opponent: 63,31% (G:46,76% B:2,52%) 36,69% (G:10,06% B:0,73%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are variants. The first is a more pure, extreme, expression of the original position.

The others are contrasting variants (having a single change from the original position). Altogether, four different best plays are represented.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 129 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 100 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBB-BB-AB--a-aaAbbeb---A-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: A Blue 8pt checker is shifted to the 9pt

1.	Rollout1	16/10 9/4	eq: +0.731
	Player: Opponent: 69.05% (G:51.64% B:1.97%) 30.95% (G:7.38% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.725...+0.737) - [100.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 32 seconds
2.	Rollout1	16/5	eq: +0.673 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 68.95% (G:45.44% B:1.51%) 31.05% (G:3.74% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.666...+0.680) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 35 seconds
3.	Rollout1	9/3 8/3	eq: +0.630 (-0.101)
	Player: Opponent: 66.96% (G:46.55% B:1.96%) 33.04% (G:6.09% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.621...+0.639) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 59 seconds
4.	Rollout1	9/4 8/2	eq: +0.617 (-0.114)
	Player: Opponent: 65.05% (G:50.03% B:3.09%) 34.95% (G:10.14% B:0.86%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.610...+0.624) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 38 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 37347982 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 123 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 99 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBB-BB-BA--a-aaAbbcb-b-A-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's two White 6pt spares are on her 3pt

1.	Rollout1	9/3 8/3	eq: +0.333
	Player: Opponent: 57.56% (G:40.19% B:1.60%) 42.44% (G:8.52% B:0.46%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.325...+0.341) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: +0.290 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 56.17% (G:39.87% B:1.68%) 43.83% (G:9.28% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.281...+0.299) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds
3.	Rollout1	16/10 9/4	eq: +0.275 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 55.54% (G:40.10% B:1.38%) 44.46% (G:9.53% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.268...+0.282) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
4.	Rollout1	16/5	eq: +0.220 (-0.113)
	Player: Opponent: 54.68% (G:35.61% B:1.04%) 45.32% (G:6.23% B:0.23%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.213...+0.228) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 49482298 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 123 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 99 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBB-BB-BA--a-aaAbbe---bA-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White's 5pt is changed to her 2pt

1.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: +1.118
	Player: Opponent: 80.26% (G:59.21% B:3.93%) 19.74% (G:3.81% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.115...+1.121) - [99.6%] Duration: 8 minutes 11 seconds
2.	Rollout1	16/5	eq: +1.112 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 81.28% (G:56.11% B:2.37%) 18.72% (G:2.20% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.003 (+1.109...+1.115) - [0.4%] Duration: 6 minutes 49 seconds
3.	Rollout2	9/3 8/3	eq: +1.095 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 79.97% (G:57.90% B:3.46%) 20.03% (G:3.77% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.089...+1.102) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds
4.	Rollout2	16/10 9/4	eq: +1.079 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 78.72% (G:60.81% B:3.09%) 21.28% (G:4.74% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.073...+1.085) - [0.0%] Duration: 2 minutes 25 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13177793 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 13177793 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 117 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 99 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=aBBB-BB-BA--a-aaA-beb--bA-:1:-1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: White's 8pt is changed to her 2pt

1.	Rollout1	16/5	eq: +0.793
	Player: Opponent: 74.00% (G:43.18% B:1.78%) 26.00% (G:3.08% B:0.12%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.787...+0.800) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 minute 14 seconds
2.	Rollout1	9/3 8/3	eq: +0.765 (-0.028)
	Player: Opponent: 72.07% (G:46.06% B:2.55%) 27.93% (G:5.93% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.758...+0.772) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
3.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: +0.759 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 71.72% (G:46.52% B:2.65%) 28.28% (G:6.43% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.752...+0.767) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
4.	Rollout1	16/10 9/4	eq: +0.753 (-0.041)
	Player: Opponent: 71.25% (G:48.63% B:2.34%) 28.75% (G:7.36% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.747...+0.758) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 85716612 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Make up your mind VIII
  pierrez -- Friday, 7 August 2026, at 11:59 a.m.
  • Make up your mind VIII
    Stick -- Monday, 10 August 2026, at 7:20 a.m.
  • Make up your mind VIII
    Ibrahima -- Monday, 10 August 2026, at 10:57 a.m.
  • Make up your mind VIII - Rollout
    pierrez -- Tuesday, 11 August 2026, at 2:20 p.m.
    • Make up your mind VIII - Four Variants
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 12 August 2026, at 3:05 a.m.