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Make up your mind IX - Four best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 13 August 2026, at 6:55 a.m.

In Response To: Make up your mind IX - Rollout (pierrez)





White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 148
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=---aaBD-BB-AcBb--a-cbb--B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.Rollout19/3* 6/4* eq: -0,242
Player:
Opponent:		44,49% (G:18,78% B:1,03%)
55,51% (G:24,95% B:3,78%)		Conf.: ± 0,020 (-0,262...-0,222) - [99,8%]
Duration: 35 minutes 03 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 6/4* eq: -0,282 (-0,040)
Player:
Opponent:		45,55% (G:14,03% B:0,86%)
54,45% (G:25,66% B:2,34%)		Conf.: ± 0,018 (-0,300...-0,264) - [0,2%]
Duration: 44 minutes 11 seconds
3.Rollout124/22 11/5eq: -0,314 (-0,071)
Player:
Opponent:		43,06% (G:14,37% B:0,88%)
56,94% (G:21,04% B:1,02%)		Conf.: ± 0,015 (-0,328...-0,299) - [0,0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 20 seconds
4.Rollout111/5 6/4* eq: -0,325 (-0,082)
Player:
Opponent:		42,90% (G:16,06% B:0,95%)
57,10% (G:21,36% B:1,87%)		Conf.: ± 0,017 (-0,341...-0,308) - [0,0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 00 second
5.4-ply24/18 11/9eq: -0,339 (-0,096)
Player:
Opponent:		42,87% (G:12,18% B:0,69%)
57,13% (G:22,18% B:0,92%)
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is pierrez's rollout of the original position.

Below are three variants. Altogether, four positions with four different best plays represented.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 144
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aaBD-BB-AcBb--a-cb--bB-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 4pt is changed to her 2pt

1.Rollout111/5 6/4* eq: +0.066
Player:
Opponent:		51.85% (G:18.89% B:1.04%)
48.15% (G:18.23% B:1.61%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.057...+0.076) - [100.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout19/3* 6/4* eq: +0.043 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		51.96% (G:21.72% B:1.30%)
48.04% (G:21.70% B:3.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.034...+0.052) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 35 seconds
3.Rollout224/18 6/4* eq: -0.066 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:		51.22% (G:16.16% B:0.98%)
48.78% (G:24.57% B:2.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.081...-0.052) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 19 seconds
4.Rollout224/22 11/5eq: -0.074 (-0.141)
Player:
Opponent:		49.49% (G:15.51% B:1.00%)
50.51% (G:18.86% B:0.73%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.088...-0.061) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 31 seconds
5.Rollout211/3* eq: -0.090 (-0.156)
Player:
Opponent:		48.14% (G:16.61% B:0.87%)
51.86% (G:18.81% B:1.37%)		Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.109...-0.071) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 28 seconds
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49482298
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49482298
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aaBD-BB-AcBb--c-cb---B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 4pt checkers are on her 8pt

1.Rollout124/18 6/4* eq: +0.046
Player:
Opponent:		51.61% (G:15.69% B:0.79%)
48.39% (G:16.26% B:1.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.033...+0.059) - [100.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 56 seconds
2.Rollout111/5 6/4* eq: +0.007 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		49.31% (G:18.79% B:0.75%)
50.69% (G:15.33% B:1.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.006...+0.020) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 00 second
3.Rollout19/3* 6/4* eq: +0.006 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		49.43% (G:20.91% B:0.77%)
50.57% (G:17.28% B:1.81%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.006...+0.018) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 26 seconds
4.Rollout224/22 11/5eq: -0.011 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		49.04% (G:16.44% B:0.65%)
50.96% (G:13.65% B:0.73%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.025...+0.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 28 seconds
5.Rollout224/18 11/9eq: -0.011 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		49.76% (G:14.76% B:0.65%)
50.24% (G:14.45% B:0.68%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.026...+0.003) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 48 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37347982
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 37347982
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 150
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 153
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aaBD-BB-AcBb--b-bbb--B-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White 6pt spare is on her 8pt

1.Rollout124/22 11/5eq: -0.352
Player:
Opponent:		40.69% (G:13.06% B:0.65%)
59.31% (G:17.58% B:0.90%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.360...-0.345) - [74.2%]
Duration: 38 minutes 05 seconds
2.Rollout124/18 6/4* eq: -0.356 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		42.96% (G:11.97% B:0.57%)
57.04% (G:22.89% B:1.97%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.363...-0.348) - [25.8%]
Duration: 34 minutes 03 seconds
3.Rollout29/3* 6/4* eq: -0.419 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		39.44% (G:15.38% B:0.63%)
60.56% (G:24.49% B:3.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.434...-0.403) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 36 seconds
4.Rollout224/22 24/18eq: -0.448 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:		40.37% (G:11.49% B:0.68%)
59.63% (G:23.93% B:1.27%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.464...-0.433) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 38 seconds
5.Rollout224/18 11/9eq: -0.452 (-0.100)
Player:
Opponent:		39.29% (G:11.64% B:0.75%)
60.71% (G:19.74% B:1.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.467...-0.438) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 17 seconds
6.Rollout211/5 6/4* eq: -0.470 (-0.118)
Player:
Opponent:		38.73% (G:13.91% B:0.64%)
61.27% (G:21.35% B:1.79%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.486...-0.455) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 34 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85716612
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85716612
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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