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BGonline.org Forums
Position of the Day 07-29-26 - Cajones?
Posted By: OpenWheel In Response To: Position of the Day 07-29-26 - Cajones? (Francesco)
Date: Thursday, 13 August 2026, at 5:40 p.m.
I really don't know what I'm doing on cubes, need to study up. But my guess is...
The 5 double hits lose the market by a mile, barring an immediate D5 by White. The 15 single hits, deduct for White entering with an immediate 5, so I approx 10 that lose market big. (Hit one/flunk) . I am guessing that winning gammons balance losses for initial quick calcs making a hit flunk a win. Not sure, would hoover up a lot of blots and be well ahead in the race. So may be way more extra wins compared to losses on a single hit white enter, but I'm saying even.
That leave 16 Blue flunks. White claim? I think so. If this is not right then I'll be pretty far off toward the white side. It looks very close. I say double is efficient enough or better , to call it a claim.
So the 5 hits where white enters right away after being hit once...If Blue is a 60-40 favorite? Stuff like 51 or 52 rolls are likely to hit Blue. Blue wins 3 loses 2 . 15 above + 3 is 18 times loses 4, 18 times wins 4. 16 where blue missed plus 2 .
So a tie? lol
Don't know, looked like a cube/take at first glance to me. But if it ties, I say hold the cube for ownership value. I'm probably not accounting enough for White gammon losses because at a glance the take looks scarier than the redouble. And maybe I favor White too much if Blue flunks. Could this be a pass? Hmmm... But, I'm still going QF:
NR/T
Sort of a 'too good to double, take ' ...
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