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Blue to play 3-1 - Four best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Monday, 17 August 2026, at 4:19 a.m.

In Response To: Blue to play 3-1 Rollout (Colin Owen)





White is XG Roller++

score: 0
pip: 150
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Colin G. Owen
XGID=-AaB--CaC---cD-b-b-dbAA---:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.Rollout122/21 6/3eq: -0.2977
Player:
Opponent:		41.34% (G:10.23% B:0.18%)
58.66% (G:10.21% B:0.47%)		Conf.: ±0.0065 (-0.3042...-0.2912) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 33 seconds
2.Rollout122/21 8/5eq: -0.3320 (-0.0343)
Player:
Opponent:		40.36% (G:10.20% B:0.21%)
59.64% (G:10.40% B:0.45%)		Conf.: ±0.0068 (-0.3388...-0.3252) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds
3.Rollout122/21 13/10eq: -0.3331 (-0.0354)
Player:
Opponent:		40.40% (G:10.56% B:0.24%)
59.60% (G:10.94% B:0.51%)		Conf.: ±0.0069 (-0.3400...-0.3263) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 07 seconds
4.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.3881 (-0.0904)
Player:
Opponent:		40.87% (G:13.71% B:0.62%)
59.13% (G:20.64% B:0.98%)		Conf.: ±0.0080 (-0.3960...-0.3801) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 38 seconds
5.Rollout221/18 8/7* eq: -0.4862 (-0.1885)
Player:
Opponent:		38.63% (G:11.12% B:0.43%)
61.37% (G:22.72% B:1.44%)		Conf.: ±0.0105 (-0.4967...-0.4757) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
6.Rollout213/10 8/7* eq: -0.5163 (-0.2186)
Player:
Opponent:		37.78% (G:12.10% B:0.47%)
62.22% (G:23.44% B:1.99%)		Conf.: ±0.0114 (-0.5277...-0.5049) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 35 seconds
7.Rollout28/7* 7/4eq: -0.5589 (-0.2612)
Player:
Opponent:		36.75% (G:11.04% B:0.41%)
63.25% (G:23.51% B:1.59%)		Conf.: ±0.0105 (-0.5694...-0.5483) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 41 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21976511
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21976511
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Colin's rollout of the original position.

Below are variants. Altogether, four positions with four different best plays represented.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 157
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AaB--CaC---dD-b-b-cbAA---:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: A White 6pt spare is on her 13pt

1.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.273
Player:
Opponent:		42.81% (G:14.87% B:0.54%)
57.19% (G:17.37% B:0.82%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.281...-0.265) - [100.0%]
Duration: 33 minutes 19 seconds
2.Rollout122/21 6/3eq: -0.300 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		41.11% (G:11.10% B:0.19%)
58.89% (G:10.63% B:0.45%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.308...-0.292) - [0.0%]
Duration: 37 minutes 58 seconds
3.Rollout222/21 8/5eq: -0.321 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		40.54% (G:11.08% B:0.21%)
59.46% (G:10.41% B:0.45%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.336...-0.305) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 24 seconds
4.Rollout222/21 13/10eq: -0.343 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:		39.95% (G:11.03% B:0.23%)
60.05% (G:10.81% B:0.44%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.358...-0.328) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 51 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85760741
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 85760741
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AaB--CaC---cD-bab-cbAA---:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: A White 6pt spare is on her 9pt

1.Rollout122/21 8/5eq: -0.430
Player:
Opponent:		38.07% (G:10.59% B:0.26%)
61.93% (G:12.32% B:0.57%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.438...-0.422) - [66.0%]
Duration: 47 minutes 27 seconds
2.Rollout122/21 6/3eq: -0.432 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		37.82% (G:9.86% B:0.19%)
62.18% (G:11.52% B:0.48%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.440...-0.425) - [30.5%]
Duration: 49 minutes 14 seconds
3.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: -0.438 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		39.09% (G:13.50% B:0.64%)
60.91% (G:20.53% B:1.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.447...-0.430) - [3.5%]
Duration: 23 minutes 18 seconds
4.Rollout122/21 13/10eq: -0.449 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		37.47% (G:10.34% B:0.30%)
62.53% (G:12.20% B:0.56%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.457...-0.441) - [0.0%]
Duration: 31 minutes 09 seconds
5.Rollout213/10 8/7* eq: -0.483 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		38.07% (G:12.72% B:0.57%)
61.93% (G:22.77% B:1.90%)		Conf.: ± 0.022 (-0.505...-0.462) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 23 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23303852
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 23303852
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AaB--CaC---bD-b-b-dbAA-a-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: The White 13pt spare is on her 1pt

1.Rollout122/21 13/10eq: -0.266
Player:
Opponent:		42.39% (G:12.36% B:0.37%)
57.61% (G:13.08% B:0.49%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.273...-0.259) - [87.5%]
Duration: 23 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout122/21 8/5eq: -0.272 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		42.15% (G:11.85% B:0.34%)
57.85% (G:12.49% B:0.45%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.279...-0.265) - [12.1%]
Duration: 23 minutes 21 seconds
3.Rollout122/21 6/3eq: -0.278 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		41.59% (G:11.17% B:0.29%)
58.41% (G:11.64% B:0.46%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.285...-0.272) - [0.4%]
Duration: 23 minutes 22 seconds
4.Rollout28/5 6/5eq: -0.295 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		43.64% (G:15.32% B:0.71%)
56.36% (G:22.43% B:0.85%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.307...-0.282) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 13 seconds
5.Rollout321/18 8/7* eq: -0.298 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		43.26% (G:13.88% B:0.74%)
56.74% (G:23.63% B:1.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.314...-0.282) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 41 seconds
6.Rollout313/10 8/7* eq: -0.298 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		42.67% (G:15.01% B:0.71%)
57.33% (G:23.98% B:1.88%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.313...-0.283) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 38 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71908255
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71908255
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84309929
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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