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BGonline.org Forums
Position of the Day 08-04-26 - 3a 4a Cube Action
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Position of the Day 08-04-26 - 3a 4a Cube Action (Stick)
Date: Tuesday, 18 August 2026, at 12:37 p.m.
Does White have a take? If White takes and mindlessly auto recubes to 4 regardless of what Blue has rolled, the tp is 33%. So the tp can't be more than 33% even if all losses are g's or bg's. If White handles the recube more intelligently, the tp is probably more like 30% - 31%. Can White win this often? Pretty sure the answer is yes. White's in pretty good shape if 1) Blue dances or rolls the awful 61 2) If Blue hits loose on Blue's acepoint but White rolls a hitting ace from the roof. White's in decent shape if Blue rolls a hitting 2 but White rolls an ace to anchor.
Should Blue double? The leader's gammon value with a centered cube is much higher than normal - about 14/17. Many of Blue's wins will be g's and that gets him to Crawford. I think Blue's g's are about equal to White's winning chances and White wins some g's as well. If this is correct, then Blue should probably not double. Another reason not to double is that Blue's 4-cube tp will be a whopping 40%.
This looks like one of those TG/Take positions that can only happen in match play. Playing on increases Blue's match winning chances and if Blue does double, White increases his MWC by taking. TG/T looks correct to me.
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