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Make up your mind X - Four best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 18 August 2026, at 12:50 p.m.

In Response To: Make up your mind X - Rollout (pierrez)





White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 119
1 point match
pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-AaB-BBBB---bB---cacc-bAA-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10
Original position

1.Rollout113/6eq: -0,305
Player:
Opponent:		34,76% (G:8,82% B:0,70%)
65,24% (G:32,06% B:4,78%)		Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,310...-0,299) - [95,4%]
Duration: 9 minutes 59 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: -0,311 (-0,007)
Player:
Opponent:		34,43% (G:7,96% B:0,47%)
65,57% (G:32,43% B:5,32%)		Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,317...-0,306) - [4,6%]
Duration: 9 minutes 38 seconds
3.Rollout15/1 5/2* eq: -0,317 (-0,013)
Player:
Opponent:		34,13% (G:14,16% B:0,24%)
65,87% (G:29,80% B:5,46%)		Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,322...-0,313) - [0,0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 42 seconds
4.Rollout124/21 13/9eq: -0,348 (-0,043)
Player:
Opponent:		32,60% (G:6,60% B:0,54%)
67,40% (G:39,18% B:5,01%)		Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,353...-0,343) - [0,0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 16 seconds
5.Rollout18/4 7/4eq: -0,372 (-0,067)
Player:
Opponent:		31,42% (G:7,95% B:0,54%)
68,58% (G:36,31% B:6,40%)		Conf.: ± 0,005 (-0,376...-0,367) - [0,0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 40 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is pierrez's rollout of the original position.

Below are variants. Altogether, four positions representing four different best plays.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 118
1 point match
pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AaB-BBBB---bB---c-dc-bAA-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10
Variant 1: White's 7pt checker is on her 6pt

1.Rollout124/21 13/9eq: -0.256
Player:
Opponent:		37.20% (G:7.64% B:0.43%)
62.80% (G:34.45% B:4.59%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.261...-0.251) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout113/6eq: -0.279 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		36.06% (G:9.24% B:0.62%)
63.94% (G:30.25% B:4.36%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.283...-0.274) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 47 seconds
3.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.283 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		35.87% (G:8.83% B:0.71%)
64.13% (G:33.97% B:4.79%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.288...-0.277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 09 seconds
4.Rollout15/1 5/2* eq: -0.352 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:		32.42% (G:8.22% B:0.15%)
67.58% (G:29.22% B:5.16%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.356...-0.348) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 52 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3700224
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 124
1 point match
pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AaB-BBBB---cB---bacc-bAA-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10
Variant 2: White's 8pt spare is on her 13pt

1.Rollout15/1 5/2* eq: -0.286
Player:
Opponent:		35.69% (G:15.07% B:0.26%)
64.31% (G:28.82% B:4.94%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.291...-0.282) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 52 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.303 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		34.85% (G:9.62% B:0.35%)
65.15% (G:31.22% B:4.73%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.308...-0.298) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 19 seconds
3.Rollout113/6eq: -0.324 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		33.79% (G:10.07% B:0.49%)
66.21% (G:32.34% B:5.51%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.329...-0.319) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 36 seconds
4.Rollout124/21 13/9eq: -0.340 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		32.99% (G:7.57% B:0.70%)
67.01% (G:37.03% B:5.77%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.346...-0.335) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 07 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32879269
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 114
1 point match
pip: 132
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-AaB-BBBB---bB---bacc-cAA-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:1:10
Variant 3: White's 8pt spare is on her 3pt

1.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: -0.257
Player:
Opponent:		37.15% (G:8.55% B:0.80%)
62.85% (G:36.70% B:4.70%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.260...-0.254) - [76.1%]
Duration: 7 minutes 26 seconds
2.Rollout113/6eq: -0.258 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		37.08% (G:8.36% B:0.61%)
62.92% (G:33.57% B:3.81%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.261...-0.256) - [23.9%]
Duration: 6 minutes 54 seconds
3.Rollout15/1 5/2* eq: -0.262 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		36.89% (G:14.38% B:0.24%)
63.11% (G:31.54% B:5.15%)		Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.264...-0.260) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout224/21 13/9eq: -0.271 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		36.47% (G:7.47% B:0.64%)
63.53% (G:39.59% B:5.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.276...-0.265) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 44 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 70242795
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 70242795
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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