BGonline.org Forums

PotD 07-31-26 - Type "b" Variant

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 19 August 2026, at 12:48 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 07-31-26 - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 136 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 144 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B--DBB-b-bB--bdAeB-----:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	20/18(2) 7/5 6/4	eq: -0.206
	Player: Opponent: 43.97% (G:2.53% B:0.05%) 56.03% (G:1.95% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.216...-0.197) - [83.3%] Duration: 57.3 seconds
2.	Rollout1	20/18(2) 7/5(2)	eq: -0.213 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 43.88% (G:2.48% B:0.06%) 56.12% (G:2.00% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.222...-0.204) - [16.7%] Duration: 53.5 seconds
3.	Rollout1	7/5(2) 6/4(2)	eq: -0.256 (-0.050)
	Player: Opponent: 42.81% (G:4.80% B:0.09%) 57.19% (G:3.28% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.266...-0.246) - [0.0%] Duration: 54.0 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

There are two types of plays that can be best: (a) 20/18(2) and two deuces on the near side; and (b) all four deuces on the near side. Within each type, there is seldom any significant difference in equity between exact plays. I found this to be true among a wide range of (shotless) changes to White's position.

If the position is changed such that White's two 13pt checkers are on her 11pt or 10pt, type "a" still dominates. If they are moved to the 9pt, type "b" is essentially even with type "a." Move them one point further, to the 8pt, as illustrated below, and type "b" solidly beats type "a."

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 126 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 144 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B--DBB-b--B--bfAeB-----:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10
Variant: White's 13pt checkers are on her 8pt

1.	Rollout1	8/4 7/5 6/4	eq: -0.505
	Player: Opponent: 35.06% (G:2.68% B:0.07%) 64.94% (G:2.96% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.510...-0.500) - [65.0%] Duration: 22 minutes 41 seconds
2.	Rollout1	7/5(2) 6/4(2)	eq: -0.508 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 34.98% (G:2.70% B:0.06%) 65.02% (G:3.01% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.512...-0.503) - [14.9%] Duration: 21 minutes 22 seconds
3.	Rollout1	7/5(2) 6/2	eq: -0.509 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 34.86% (G:2.69% B:0.07%) 65.14% (G:3.06% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.514...-0.504) - [7.3%] Duration: 18 minutes 30 seconds
4.	Rollout1	8/4(2)	eq: -0.509 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 34.79% (G:2.65% B:0.07%) 65.21% (G:2.94% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.514...-0.504) - [5.9%] Duration: 20 minutes 00 second
5.	Rollout1	8/4 7/5(2)	eq: -0.510 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 34.91% (G:2.70% B:0.06%) 65.09% (G:3.00% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.514...-0.505) - [3.4%] Duration: 19 minutes 41 seconds
6.	Rollout1	7/5 6/4 6/2	eq: -0.510 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 34.84% (G:3.09% B:0.08%) 65.16% (G:3.58% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.515...-0.505) - [2.9%] Duration: 19 minutes 36 seconds
7.	Rollout1	8/2 6/4	eq: -0.513 (-0.008)
	Player: Opponent: 34.75% (G:2.90% B:0.07%) 65.25% (G:3.44% B:0.11%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.517...-0.508) - [0.3%] Duration: 17 minutes 57 seconds
8.	Rollout2	8/2 7/5	eq: -0.515 (-0.010)
	Player: Opponent: 34.65% (G:3.12% B:0.08%) 65.35% (G:3.59% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.522...-0.508) - [0.3%] Duration: 11 minutes 05 seconds
9.	Rollout2	7/5 7/3 6/4	eq: -0.521 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 34.53% (G:2.88% B:0.08%) 65.47% (G:3.48% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.527...-0.514) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 06 seconds
10.	Rollout3	20/18(2) 7/5(2)	eq: -0.536 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 32.59% (G:1.43% B:0.05%) 67.41% (G:2.40% B:0.07%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.545...-0.526) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 48 seconds
11.	Rollout3	20/18(2) 7/5 6/4	eq: -0.548 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 32.46% (G:1.61% B:0.05%) 67.54% (G:2.78% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.559...-0.537) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 08 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32879269 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32879269 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 32879269 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 07-31-26
  Stick -- Saturday, 15 August 2026, at 4:21 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-31-26
    Francesco -- Saturday, 15 August 2026, at 5:02 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-31-26
    ah_clem -- Saturday, 15 August 2026, at 6:06 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-31-26
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 15 August 2026, at 7:24 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-31-26
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 16 August 2026, at 7:04 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-31-26
    OpenWheel -- Monday, 17 August 2026, at 1:50 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 07-31-26 - Rollout
    Stick -- Monday, 17 August 2026, at 11:29 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 07-31-26 - XG++
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 18 August 2026, at 5:03 p.m.
    • PotD 07-31-26 - Type "b" Variant
      Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 19 August 2026, at 12:48 a.m.