        
 
       
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 144
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BBBB----BeB---cAcbBb---:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Original position |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 21/18 11/9 | eq: -0.647 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.50% (G:2.78% B:0.07%)
68.50% (G:5.15% B:0.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.658...-0.636) - [100.0%]
Duration: 53.8 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 18/13 | eq: -0.743 (-0.096) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.57% (G:1.55% B:0.04%)
71.43% (G:2.27% B:0.06%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.752...-0.734) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51.2 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below is a contrasting variant.
(At least 20 plays are better than covering the 16pt. Most of them, which are thematically similar to each other, are omitted from my rollout.)
So, the swing in the proper decision to cover the 18pt compared to the decision to cover the 16pt is a double-whopping .246.
Nack
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 123 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 142
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=---BBBB----BeB--Ac-cbBb---:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Variant: Blue's 18pt blot is on his 16pt |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 16/13 11/9 | eq: -0.686 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.97% (G:1.68% B:0.04%)
70.03% (G:2.29% B:0.09%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.695...-0.677) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/9 11/8 | eq: -0.731 (-0.044) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 29.48% (G:2.80% B:0.07%)
70.52% (G:5.00% B:0.12%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.740...-0.721) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 38 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 16/14 11/8 | eq: -0.756 (-0.070) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 28.70% (G:2.30% B:0.06%)
71.30% (G:4.25% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.767...-0.746) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 21/16 | eq: -0.835 (-0.149) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 27.90% (G:2.62% B:0.07%)
72.10% (G:8.66% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.848...-0.822) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 32 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84309929
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|