A backgammon beginner doesn't hit anywhere near the amount they should. Hitting is learned over time and at some point probably most if not all of us cross the line and actually hit too much. Finding the line on some problems like this one is tough. I felt the score would lean people into hitting also. We're behind = hit more is the basic thought.
It is an even race though, we are outboarded though, and at least half the opp's numbers do hit back if we hit.
Q&D rollout at a NMS gives basically the same results as the AtS RO.
       
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 138 | | 7 point match | pip: 142
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-Ba-C-C-C-cC---c-cb---bA:0:0:1:42:1:3:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 42 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 8/6 | eq: -0.017 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.57% (G:10.85% B:0.58%)
48.43% (G:16.89% B:0.30%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.031...-0.004) - [100.0%]
Duration: 59.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 10/8 | eq: -0.056 (-0.038) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.22% (G:10.17% B:0.57%)
48.78% (G:17.62% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.070...-0.042) - [0.0%]
Duration: 54.8 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 8/4* | eq: -0.057 (-0.039) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.43% (G:14.97% B:0.75%)
49.57% (G:21.91% B:1.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.074...-0.039) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59.4 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | Bar/21 6/4* | eq: -0.066 (-0.048) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.51% (G:13.46% B:0.63%)
49.49% (G:21.82% B:0.62%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.082...-0.050) - [0.0%]
Duration: 59.4 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout1 | Bar/23 10/6 | eq: -0.081 (-0.063) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.12% (G:11.41% B:0.61%)
49.88% (G:18.12% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.094...-0.068) - [0.0%]
Duration: 53.3 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|