I've mentioned it before but I like to play on. There should be a word for one who has the tendency to play on and one who does not. (a Casher?) When I think it's close the position has to meet a few criteria for me to play on even if I may think or know it's technically a pass. The main thing is when the position turns around for my opponent is it obvious that he has a take? Here it will be which makes this position a non starter as a play on. A lot of TG/near TG positions though aren't all that clear when a bad sequence happens and the opponent may still readily drop because they knew up to that point you were playing on.
We have 8 pure dud rolls this turn along with [66] being survivable. That's too many given that we're down a significant amount in the race and our gammon chances somewhat hinge not only on hitting immediately but also hitting the second checker. Not always a sure thing.
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| XGID=--BCBBBa---B--aA--Ad-bd-c-:3:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 78.39% (G:24.63% B:0.75%) | 78.86% (G:24.39% B:0.75%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 21.61% (G:1.00% B:0.02%) | 21.14% (G:1.16% B:0.03%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.811 | +1.634 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.899 (-0.101) | ±0.004 (+0.895..+0.903) |
| Redouble/Take: | +1.489 (+0.489) | ±0.008 (+1.482..+1.497) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 15.8 seconds | ||