So OtB I was on the fence on whether to cube this or not. I sent it over anyway because who cares, I'm only playing XG. I was surprised though in the initial analysis XGR+ said it was a ND by .131 and even XGR++ kept it a no double by .115. Fortunately a rollout made it a respectable error.
Truth is, if we don't roll an ace to hit immediately it becomes a tough game to finish off. (or [66] obv) The opponent safeties his current outfield blot and if he ever steps up with a deuce or a three we either have to hit loose while the opponent has a five point board or don't hit loose and cross our fingers hoping he doesn't pop out/we can contain him if he does.
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| XGID=-a---BBBB-B--A---aBbbcccB-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 71.04% (G:10.66% B:0.36%) | 71.84% (G:12.00% B:0.47%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 28.96% (G:12.45% B:1.48%) | 28.16% (G:12.32% B:1.40%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.392 | +0.849 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.752 | ±0.007 (+0.745..+0.759) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.735 (-0.017) | ±0.011 (+0.724..+0.746) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.248) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.0% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.4% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 5 minutes 07 seconds | ||