Alter the position to only have 4 checkers back by moving one of white's checkers from the bar to the midpoint and it's almost a coin flip to hit.
I'm not sure if this is generalizable, but 5 back says go for the backgammon, 4 back is a push, and three back is just ice the gammon.
(I also have a loose rule that three back against a strong prime is TG)
       
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 177 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 63
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=cBCBaCCA-A--c----a-cb-b---:1:-1:1:43:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 43 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 9/5 7/4* | eq: +1.850 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 92.49% (G:87.69% B:16.01%)
7.51% (G:0.20% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+1.844...+1.855) - [98.5%]
Duration: 1 minute 13 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 7/3 6/3 | eq: +1.841 (-0.009) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 94.43% (G:91.29% B:6.82%)
5.57% (G:0.04% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.836...+1.846) - [1.4%]
Duration: 1 minute 16 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 9/5 6/3 | eq: +1.838 (-0.012) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 94.29% (G:90.91% B:7.26%)
5.71% (G:0.03% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.833...+1.843) - [0.1%]
Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 9/6 7/3 | eq: +1.831 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 93.86% (G:90.32% B:8.08%)
6.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (+1.827...+1.836) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10