So what makes the difference in situations like this? Well, per usual, it's probably a combination of a variety of things. In no specific order:
- Am I leaving one blot or multiple blots? (even more important when the opponent has a killer board)
- Which way is more likely to be virtual gin if I get away with it?
- Is my opponent forced to concede something in most scenario on his immediate upcoming roll?
- If (as in this position) I hit and the opponent fans, how good is my follow up?
I'm sure there's more but that's off the top of the dome. Also, see variant below.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 114 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 86
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aBD-BCbB----B---a-cbbbb--:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/6 | eq: -0.110 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.27% (G:8.26% B:0.15%)
49.73% (G:5.06% B:0.11%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.115...-0.104) - [100.0%]
Duration: 8.2 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 8/1* | eq: -0.154 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.66% (G:11.73% B:0.07%)
49.34% (G:17.62% B:0.45%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.161...-0.148) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14.0 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 114 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 88
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aBC-CCbB----B---a-cbbbb--:1:-1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 8/1* | eq: -0.020 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 54.83% (G:14.16% B:0.10%)
45.17% (G:15.44% B:0.34%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.026...-0.014) - [100.0%]
Duration: 13.1 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/6 | eq: -0.035 (-0.015) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 53.44% (G:9.10% B:0.15%)
46.56% (G:4.69% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.039...-0.031) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8.4 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|