[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Position of the Day 09-01-26 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 18 September 2026, at 7:43 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 09-01-26 (Stick)

While this is technically not TG (I played on) it's important to highlight what John said and was my thinking at the time. Even if we are hit next turn in whatever fashion we are not dead. Depending on how we're hit we'll be on roll having roughly 40% winning chances and still win more gammons than our opponent. Equity wise it will be close to an even game though we'll be the slight dogs.

Knowing the rollout result I'd still happily play on every day of the week here against a human that I know has no chance of taking this cube. When things do go south I'll bank on them giving me that .015 back in checker play.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 111
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 41
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aFDD--a--------Aabbbb--bb-:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 84.01% (G:26.26% B:0.02%) 84.09% (G:26.78% B:0.02%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 15.99% (G:0.46% B:0.01%) 15.91% (G:0.45% B:0.01%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.938 +1.890
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.985 (-0.015)±0.004 (+0.981..+0.989)
Redouble/Take:+1.744 (+0.744)±0.010 (+1.734..+1.754)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 10.7 seconds

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.