I whacked two here, but without much conviction. Sometimes these plays are clearly correct and other times not so much. The main features that tilted me towards the double hit was the GP anchor and the race deficit. i.e. two of Magriel's safe v bold criteria point toward bold. Maybe there are other considerations.
XG says anything other than the double hit is a blunder. BTW, the "safe" play 20/24 8/6 leaves 18 shots if I counted right, not much fewer than the 22 shots left by the double hit.
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 145 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 162
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=----aaE-C--BdB---b-dCc----:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:9 |
| Blue to play 62 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 11/5* 6/4* | eq: +0.034 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.05% (G:14.38% B:0.47%)
48.95% (G:15.07% B:0.58%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.018...+0.049) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 12 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 20/14 6/4* | eq: -0.056 (-0.089) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.61% (G:10.74% B:0.45%)
51.39% (G:13.09% B:0.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.072...-0.039) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 25 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 20/14 8/6 | eq: -0.222 (-0.256) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.80% (G:8.62% B:0.33%)
56.20% (G:11.49% B:0.43%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.236...-0.209) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 46 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout1 | 11/5* 5/3 | eq: -0.226 (-0.259) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.34% (G:9.79% B:0.32%)
55.66% (G:13.01% B:0.52%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.241...-0.211) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds |
|
| 5. | 1-ply | 13/5* | eq: -0.225 (-0.259) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.84% (G:9.49% B:0.35%)
56.16% (G:14.00% B:0.52%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10