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Simple or fancy - Four best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 25 September 2026, at 1:24 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 08-17-26 - Simple or fancy - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 157 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aaBaC-CB--AA---ccf-BA---:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	22/16 8/5*	eq: +0.246
	Player: Opponent: 64.67% (G:17.27% B:0.86%) 35.33% (G:9.42% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.236...+0.255) - [100.0%] Duration: 55.3 seconds
2.	Rollout1	9/3* 8/5*	eq: +0.215 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 63.41% (G:21.46% B:1.19%) 36.59% (G:13.05% B:0.93%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.203...+0.228) - [0.0%] Duration: 53.4 seconds
3.	Rollout1	9/3* 6/3	eq: +0.209 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 62.43% (G:17.65% B:0.96%) 37.57% (G:7.88% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.199...+0.218) - [0.0%] Duration: 46.1 seconds
4.	Rollout1	22/13	eq: +0.120 (-0.126)
	Player: Opponent: 60.83% (G:11.61% B:0.44%) 39.17% (G:7.13% B:0.21%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.112...+0.128) - [0.0%] Duration: 37.1 seconds
5.	Rollout1	22/16 12/9	eq: +0.115 (-0.130)
	Player: Opponent: 60.42% (G:11.15% B:0.43%) 39.58% (G:7.01% B:0.22%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.105...+0.126) - [0.0%] Duration: 55.2 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are variants. Four positions altogether, with four different best plays (and almost a fifth) represented.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 169 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aaBaC-CB---A---ccf-BA-A-:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: Blue's 12pt blot is on his 24pt

1.	Rollout1	9/3* 8/5*	eq: +0.398
	Player: Opponent: 60.13% (G:20.09% B:1.18%) 39.87% (G:15.12% B:1.08%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.388...+0.407) - [82.6%] Duration: 45 minutes 53 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16 8/5*	eq: +0.392 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 59.89% (G:17.59% B:0.92%) 40.11% (G:12.76% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.383...+0.400) - [17.4%] Duration: 48 minutes 34 seconds
3.	Rollout2	9/3* 6/3	eq: +0.334 (-0.064)
	Player: Opponent: 57.53% (G:17.07% B:0.92%) 42.47% (G:11.70% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.316...+0.351) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 54 seconds
4.	Rollout2	21/15 8/5*	eq: +0.273 (-0.124)
	Player: Opponent: 57.64% (G:16.85% B:0.91%) 42.36% (G:15.68% B:1.27%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.255...+0.292) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 22 seconds
5.	Rollout2	22/16 6/3*	eq: +0.246 (-0.152)
	Player: Opponent: 56.32% (G:14.21% B:0.74%) 43.68% (G:12.23% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.231...+0.261) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 34 seconds
6.	Rollout2	22/13	eq: +0.243 (-0.154)
	Player: Opponent: 56.20% (G:12.78% B:0.54%) 43.80% (G:10.02% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.229...+0.257) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 36 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36511275 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 36511275 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 151 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-Baa-aC-CB--AA---ccf-BA---:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Blue's 4pt is changed to his 1pt

1.	Rollout1	9/3* 6/3	eq: +0.294
	Player: Opponent: 56.28% (G:16.71% B:0.64%) 43.72% (G:10.56% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.286...+0.302) - [87.4%] Duration: 40 minutes 40 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16 8/5*	eq: +0.288 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 56.63% (G:15.71% B:0.56%) 43.37% (G:11.18% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.280...+0.296) - [12.6%] Duration: 44 minutes 11 seconds
3.	Rollout2	22/16 12/9	eq: +0.269 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 56.79% (G:11.88% B:0.34%) 43.21% (G:8.21% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.262...+0.277) - [0.0%] Duration: 30 minutes 33 seconds
4.	Rollout3	22/13	eq: +0.264 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 56.88% (G:11.43% B:0.40%) 43.12% (G:8.76% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.251...+0.277) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 30 seconds
5.	Rollout3	22/16 6/3*	eq: +0.179 (-0.115)
	Player: Opponent: 54.36% (G:13.26% B:0.45%) 45.64% (G:10.98% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.165...+0.194) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 53 seconds
6.	Rollout3	9/3* 8/5*	eq: +0.171 (-0.123)
	Player: Opponent: 54.13% (G:17.94% B:0.70%) 45.87% (G:15.64% B:1.03%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.156...+0.186) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 28 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 64711009 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 64711009 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 64711009 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 161 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--aa-aE-CB--AA---ccf-BA---:0:0:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue's two 4pt checkers are back on his 6pt

1.	Rollout1	22/13	eq: +0.161
	Player: Opponent: 54.28% (G:9.78% B:0.38%) 45.72% (G:9.17% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.154...+0.167) - [35.2%] Duration: 14 minutes 31 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16 6/3*	eq: +0.160 (0.000)
	Player: Opponent: 54.64% (G:11.60% B:0.56%) 45.36% (G:12.00% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.152...+0.168) - [32.3%] Duration: 16 minutes 44 seconds
3.	Rollout2	22/16 12/9	eq: +0.158 (-0.003)
	Player: Opponent: 53.84% (G:10.06% B:0.36%) 46.16% (G:8.73% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.144...+0.171) - [24.3%] Duration: 4 minutes 14 seconds
4.	Rollout2	9/3* 6/3	eq: +0.150 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 53.80% (G:13.57% B:0.69%) 46.20% (G:11.73% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.134...+0.165) - [5.2%] Duration: 4 minutes 03 seconds
5.	Rollout2	22/16 8/5*	eq: +0.146 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 54.27% (G:13.28% B:0.57%) 45.73% (G:13.84% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.129...+0.163) - [2.9%] Duration: 5 minutes 03 seconds
6.	Rollout2	22/16 13/10	eq: +0.069 (-0.092)
	Player: Opponent: 52.04% (G:11.02% B:0.50%) 47.96% (G:12.28% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.051...+0.086) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 32 seconds
7.	Rollout2	9/3* 8/5*	eq: +0.018 (-0.142)
	Player: Opponent: 51.82% (G:14.22% B:0.76%) 48.18% (G:18.27% B:1.15%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.002...+0.035) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 39 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1656029 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1656029 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 08-17-26 - Simple or fancy
  Stick -- Wednesday, 2 September 2026, at 7:33 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-17-26 - Simple or fancy
    Francesco -- Wednesday, 2 September 2026, at 8:32 a.m.
    • Position of the Day 08-17-26 - Simple or fancy
      Stick -- Wednesday, 2 September 2026, at 10:16 a.m.
      • Position of the Day 08-17-26 - Simple or fancy
        Francesco -- Wednesday, 2 September 2026, at 12:38 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-17-26 - Simple or fancy
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 2 September 2026, at 12:38 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-17-26 - Simple or fancy
    Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Wednesday, 2 September 2026, at 4:26 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-17-26 - Simple or fancy
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 2 September 2026, at 9:42 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-17-26 - Simple or fancy - Rollout
    Stick -- Friday, 4 September 2026, at 10:08 a.m.
    • Position of the Day 08-17-26 - Simple or fancy - Rollout
      Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Friday, 4 September 2026, at 1:34 p.m.
    • Simple or fancy - Four best plays
      Nack Ballard -- Friday, 25 September 2026, at 1:24 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-17-26 - Simple or fancy
    MK -- Tuesday, 8 September 2026, at 11:26 a.m.