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Make up your mind XI - Four Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 26 September 2026, at 2:06 a.m.

In Response To: Make up your mind XI - Rollout Extended (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-CC-B---bCa--e-db---B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.Rollout15/1* eq: -0.064
Player:
Opponent:		47.16% (G:17.60% B:0.40%)
52.84% (G:14.75% B:1.01%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.071...-0.057) - [94.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 19 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 24/21eq: -0.071 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		47.92% (G:13.77% B:0.48%)
52.08% (G:14.74% B:0.57%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.078...-0.065) - [6.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 01 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of pierrez's original position. Because hitting edged out the second best play by less than .01, I've included a variant in which hitting dominates by a more definitive margin.

Below are four variants, with four different best plays represented.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 137
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-CC-B---cC---e-db---B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 11pt checker is on her 13pt

1.Rollout124/23 24/21eq: -0.094
Player:
Opponent:		47.04% (G:13.14% B:0.39%)
52.96% (G:13.30% B:0.52%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.101...-0.087) - [100.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 22 seconds
2.Rollout113/9eq: -0.125 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		45.81% (G:14.76% B:0.37%)
54.19% (G:13.21% B:0.88%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.133...-0.117) - [0.0%]
Duration: 22 minutes 26 seconds
3.Rollout15/1* eq: -0.128 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		45.94% (G:15.81% B:0.28%)
54.06% (G:14.32% B:0.94%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.136...-0.120) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 02 seconds
4.Rollout224/23 13/10eq: -0.134 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		46.24% (G:15.54% B:0.46%)
53.76% (G:15.90% B:0.82%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.143...-0.124) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 00 second
5.Rollout313/10 5/4eq: -0.142 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:		46.11% (G:14.58% B:0.39%)
53.89% (G:15.16% B:1.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.158...-0.125) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 38 seconds
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3672772
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3672772
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 3672772
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-CC-B---bC---f-db---B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 11pt checker is on her 8pt

1.Rollout113/9eq: -0.058
Player:
Opponent:		47.64% (G:15.55% B:0.45%)
52.36% (G:13.35% B:0.90%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.064...-0.051) - [80.0%]
Duration: 25 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 5/4eq: -0.062 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		48.56% (G:15.86% B:0.48%)
51.44% (G:15.07% B:1.27%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.069...-0.055) - [20.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout25/1* eq: -0.079 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		47.24% (G:15.75% B:0.32%)
52.76% (G:14.29% B:0.99%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.086...-0.071) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 28 seconds
4.Rollout224/23 24/21eq: -0.088 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		47.32% (G:13.51% B:0.43%)
52.68% (G:14.07% B:0.51%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.094...-0.081) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 35 seconds
5.Rollout324/23 13/10eq: -0.105 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		47.32% (G:15.45% B:0.54%)
52.68% (G:16.46% B:0.89%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.117...-0.093) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 41 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6557138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6557138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6557138
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-CC-B---bC---e-eb---B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White's 11pt checker is on her 6pt

1.Rollout113/10 5/4eq: -0.073
Player:
Opponent:		48.61% (G:14.63% B:0.44%)
51.39% (G:15.71% B:1.42%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.080...-0.065) - [61.8%]
Duration: 12 minutes 23 seconds
2.Rollout113/9eq: -0.074 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		47.75% (G:14.31% B:0.41%)
52.25% (G:13.64% B:0.93%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.082...-0.067) - [38.2%]
Duration: 12 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout25/1* eq: -0.105 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		47.02% (G:15.36% B:0.34%)
52.98% (G:14.82% B:1.08%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.116...-0.095) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 01 second
4.Rollout324/23 24/21eq: -0.143 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:		46.45% (G:12.78% B:0.42%)
53.55% (G:15.30% B:0.56%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.154...-0.131) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 59 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25755755
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25755755
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 25755755
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-CC-B---bCa--d-eb---B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: White's 8pt checker is on her 6pt

1.Rollout15/1* eq: -0.058
Player:
Opponent:		47.61% (G:17.37% B:0.41%)
52.39% (G:14.91% B:1.02%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.072...-0.044) - [100.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout124/23 24/21eq: -0.092 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		47.37% (G:13.66% B:0.58%)
52.63% (G:15.67% B:0.56%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.105...-0.078) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout113/9eq: -0.115 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		46.77% (G:14.65% B:0.50%)
53.23% (G:14.04% B:0.94%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.130...-0.099) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout113/10 5/4eq: -0.136 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:		46.88% (G:14.41% B:0.48%)
53.12% (G:15.99% B:1.37%)		Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.150...-0.121) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 06 seconds
5.Rollout124/23 13/10eq: -0.140 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:		46.41% (G:15.09% B:0.59%)
53.59% (G:17.05% B:0.88%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.154...-0.126) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 53 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13324057
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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