Always run the last checker (Pottle) or when in doubt make the 5pt (whoever)? How to know which takes precedence? Well, while it wasn't automatic it seemed to make a lot more sense to me that running to the midpoint was correct here. Why you ask? Because after running to the midpoint our distribution of checkers should easily allow us to make offensive improvements as the dice see fit. We have spares on the midpoint, 8pt, and 6pt with breaking the 11pt when needed to make better points while only leaving a few indirects. It isn't important that we make the five point specifically. It's important that we make some good points over the next few turns since the opponent has two men back. That can come in the form of the 5pt, the bar point, our 4pt, pointing on him if he is still there/doesn't anchor up on the 3pt. A virtual buffet of points that are all delicous.
The more men the opponent has back the more we lean towards making the 5pt in such a position. Also as seen in the variant below if the opp's back checkers weren't split making the 5pt isn't as bad.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 148 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 143
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-a--E-D--BdC---c-dA---b-:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/13 | eq: +0.498 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.21% (G:6.74% B:0.25%)
35.79% (G:4.96% B:0.08%) | Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.488...+0.507) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/5 6/5 | eq: +0.441 (-0.056) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.18% (G:14.25% B:0.75%)
37.82% (G:9.96% B:0.17%) | Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.430...+0.453) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51.9 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/7 8/7 | eq: +0.381 (-0.116) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.20% (G:12.56% B:0.70%)
38.80% (G:11.28% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.367...+0.396) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58.9 seconds |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 150 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 143
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b----E-D--BdC---c-dA---b-:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 61 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/13 | eq: +0.555 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.46% (G:9.22% B:0.32%)
34.54% (G:5.60% B:0.10%) | Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.549...+0.560) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 26 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 11/5 6/5 | eq: +0.534 (-0.021) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.13% (G:16.42% B:1.01%)
35.87% (G:10.33% B:0.19%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.527...+0.541) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 42 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|