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Position of the Day 09-10-26 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 28 September 2026, at 10:17 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 09-10-26 (Stick)

I hate when this and very similar positions come up OtB because I know XG even on ++ is going to tell me it's a take and all I want to do is pass, pass, pass. ++ thinks this is worth +0.965 so only a smallish take but still... Four off, completely crunched board when the opponent has plenty of numbers that make the position virtually gin I let it go. (virtually gin in the sense of as good as it gets v. 4 off already, we still have ~16% in these scenarios)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 39
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 112
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-FDb----------a---bcbbab-A:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 79.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 79.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 20.80% (G:3.15% B:0.04%) 20.83% (G:2.95% B:0.03%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.552 +1.107
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.915 (-0.085)±0.001 (+0.914..+0.916)
Redouble/Take:+1.003 (+0.003)±0.003 (+1.000..+1.005)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass
Rollout details
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:97.1%
Duration: 52.3 seconds

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