I'm always a fan of playing 15 v. 2 (or 1) even when the two are already out on the bar point. Here none of the analysis levels thought coming out with both from the 20pt was correct. It took a rollout to get there. Also, the rollout hit 100% around 800-900 trials but dipped back below by 1296. Extending it to 5k never got it back to 100% again.
Lastly a variant below where I figure it would favor even more bringing both off of the anchor. Rolling the dilly builder off onto the next logical point for the opponent. In doing so it means that now the opponent can't hit without leaving a direct shot next turn. XGR+ and ++ realized this but 3 ply still got it miserably wrong.
          
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 116 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--A-BCBb---B-C---bddBc----:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/15 20/14 | eq: -0.266 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.48% (G:3.94% B:0.15%)
58.52% (G:7.43% B:0.23%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.271...-0.261) - [96.4%]
Duration: 2 minutes 13 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/2 | eq: -0.273 (-0.007) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.09% (G:5.45% B:0.20%)
58.91% (G:6.77% B:0.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.278...-0.268) - [3.6%]
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 11/6 11/5 | eq: -0.313 (-0.047) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.96% (G:5.15% B:0.19%)
60.04% (G:6.38% B:0.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.323...-0.304) - [0.0%]
Duration: 29.1 seconds |
|
| |
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Variant
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 115 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 138
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--A-BCBb---B-C---bddBba---:0:0:1:65:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 65 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 20/15 20/14 | eq: -0.257 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.17% (G:3.38% B:0.16%)
58.83% (G:6.22% B:0.15%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.264...-0.250) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 22 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/2 | eq: -0.282 (-0.025) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.76% (G:5.53% B:0.19%)
59.24% (G:7.21% B:0.13%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.289...-0.275) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 14 seconds |
|
| |
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|