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Double Trouble #11 - Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 1 October 2026, at 7:08 a.m.

In Response To: Double Trouble #11 Rollout (Jason Lee)





White is John Quinn and Mike Vasilatos

score: 3
pip: 118
7 point match
pip: 154
score: 1

Blue is Jason Lee and Chuck Bower
XGID=------EaC-A-dE-b---c--babA:0:0:1:55:1:3:0:7:10
Original Position

1.Rollout1Bar/20 13/3 8/3eq: -0.906
Player:
Opponent:		34.14% (G:8.25% B:0.52%)
65.86% (G:26.39% B:0.64%)		Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.920...-0.892) - [100.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 14 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/20 10/5 6/1(2)eq: -0.949 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		32.21% (G:7.95% B:0.27%)
67.79% (G:24.01% B:0.47%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.962...-0.936) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 28 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/20 13/8(2) 10/5eq: -0.987 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:		32.16% (G:6.39% B:0.44%)
67.84% (G:22.95% B:0.30%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-1.000...-0.974) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 36 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9258127
Moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Search interval: Huge

Above is Jason's rollout of the original position.

Below are variants. Altogether, three positions, with three different best plays represented.

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 132
7 point match
pip: 154
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=------EaC-A-dE-b-b-c--ba-A:0:0:1:55:1:3:0:7:10
Variant 1: White's 1pt is changed to her 8pt

1.Rollout1Bar/20 10/5 6/1(2)eq: -0.489
Player:
Opponent:		37.91% (G:6.77% B:0.18%)
62.09% (G:12.85% B:0.43%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.494...-0.484) - [99.1%]
Duration: 23 minutes 42 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/20 13/8(2) 10/5eq: -0.499 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		38.05% (G:5.55% B:0.25%)
61.95% (G:11.87% B:0.45%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.505...-0.493) - [0.7%]
Duration: 23 minutes 17 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/20 13/3 8/3eq: -0.500 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		37.97% (G:6.28% B:0.28%)
62.03% (G:12.94% B:0.50%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.506...-0.495) - [0.2%]
Duration: 25 minutes 15 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/20 13/3 10/5eq: -0.528 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:		37.56% (G:6.97% B:0.34%)
62.44% (G:15.71% B:0.77%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.541...-0.514) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 00 second
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76220407
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76220407
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 119
7 point match
pip: 154
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=------EaC-A-dE-b---c--bbaA:0:0:1:55:1:3:0:7:10
Variant 2: A White 1pt checker is shifted to her 2pt

1.Rollout1Bar/20 13/8(2) 10/5eq: -0.932
Player:
Opponent:		32.60% (G:6.27% B:0.34%)
67.40% (G:21.46% B:0.39%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.941...-0.924) - [71.8%]
Duration: 22 minutes 10 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/20 10/5 6/1(2)eq: -0.936 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		32.34% (G:7.72% B:0.38%)
67.66% (G:23.27% B:0.44%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.944...-0.928) - [27.1%]
Duration: 22 minutes 35 seconds
3.Rollout1Bar/20 13/3 8/3eq: -0.945 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		33.80% (G:8.33% B:0.48%)
66.20% (G:27.09% B:0.82%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.954...-0.936) - [1.1%]
Duration: 26 minutes 02 seconds
4.Rollout2Bar/20 13/3 10/5eq: -0.973 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		32.84% (G:7.48% B:0.55%)
67.16% (G:25.15% B:0.42%)		Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.990...-0.956) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 24 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72596219
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 72596219
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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