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Make up your mind XIII - Rollout

Posted By: pierrez
Date: Thursday, 1 October 2026, at 7:36 a.m.

In Response To: Make up your mind XIII (pierrez)

Who is the first author who wrote "backgammon is a game of pattern recognition" ?
Yes indeed Stick. I tweaked your Position of the Day 08-11-26 - TG or not TG in order to find out when Blue has a borderline double.
The Take is obvious because the return hit from White (if hit) is opening the road to a gammon win or to a Redouble / Pass if things get mildly
Lastly, your comment about the psychological effect of a 8 cube is rather witty.
White is Joueur 2

score: 0
pip: 77
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 96
score: 0

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=-ABBBBBa---B--aA--Acbbbbb-:3:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62,93% (G:16,68% B:0,43%) 64,03% (G:15,81% B:0,40%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37,07% (G:14,57% B:1,15%) 35,97% (G:14,63% B:1,22%)
Cubeless Equities +0,273 +0,568
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0,359 (-0,040)±0,005 (+0,354..+0,364)
Redouble/Take:+0,399±0,012 (+0,387..+0,411)
Redouble/Pass:+1,000 (+0,601)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100,0%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 10 minutes 12 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release

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