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PotD 08-31-26 - Five best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 4 October 2026, at 12:55 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 08-31-26 - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 170 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bBBBBA--Aaac--c-eBAA-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	22/18 20/18	eq: +0.218
	Player: Opponent: 56.16% (G:16.93% B:0.89%) 43.84% (G:14.39% B:1.10%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.209...+0.227) - [99.9%] Duration: 5 minutes 58 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16	eq: +0.198 (-0.020)
	Player: Opponent: 55.00% (G:16.91% B:0.93%) 45.00% (G:13.18% B:0.70%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.188...+0.207) - [0.1%] Duration: 6 minutes 11 seconds
3.	Rollout2	24/20 8/6	eq: +0.175 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 53.59% (G:14.85% B:0.62%) 46.41% (G:9.91% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.159...+0.190) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds
4.	Rollout2	11/7 8/6	eq: +0.159 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 53.29% (G:15.65% B:0.64%) 46.71% (G:10.13% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.142...+0.175) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds
5.	Rollout2	22/18 8/6	eq: +0.156 (-0.062)
	Player: Opponent: 53.34% (G:15.81% B:0.69%) 46.66% (G:11.90% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (+0.138...+0.175) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 30 seconds
6.	Rollout2	22/20 8/4	eq: +0.153 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 53.06% (G:15.72% B:0.63%) 46.94% (G:10.70% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.136...+0.170) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 26 seconds
7.	Rollout2	24/22 8/4	eq: +0.150 (-0.068)
	Player: Opponent: 52.97% (G:15.32% B:0.68%) 47.03% (G:10.47% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.129...+0.170) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds
8.	Rollout2	24/20 22/20	eq: +0.008 (-0.209)
	Player: Opponent: 49.68% (G:13.71% B:0.57%) 50.32% (G:11.88% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.010...+0.027) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 37 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are four variants. Altogether, five positions with five different best plays represented.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 170 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bBBBBA--A-aca-c-eBAA-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 13pt blot is on her 10pt

1.	Rollout1	22/18 8/6	eq: +0.173
	Player: Opponent: 54.01% (G:15.70% B:0.66%) 45.99% (G:11.67% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.164...+0.181) - [81.2%] Duration: 53 minutes 52 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/20 8/6	eq: +0.167 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 53.40% (G:15.35% B:0.66%) 46.60% (G:10.34% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.159...+0.176) - [18.8%] Duration: 54 minutes 12 seconds
3.	Rollout1	22/16	eq: +0.149 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 54.25% (G:15.84% B:0.80%) 45.75% (G:14.39% B:0.86%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.141...+0.158) - [0.0%] Duration: 42 minutes 26 seconds
4.	Rollout2	22/18 20/18	eq: +0.143 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 54.82% (G:15.75% B:0.86%) 45.18% (G:15.93% B:1.31%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.130...+0.156) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 12 seconds
5.	Rollout2	24/22 8/4	eq: +0.142 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 52.94% (G:15.11% B:0.68%) 47.06% (G:10.50% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.130...+0.153) - [0.0%] Duration: 25 minutes 36 seconds
6.	Rollout3	22/20 8/4	eq: +0.139 (-0.034)
	Player: Opponent: 52.93% (G:15.28% B:0.62%) 47.07% (G:10.87% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.119...+0.159) - [0.1%] Duration: 10 minutes 48 seconds
7.	Rollout3	11/7 8/6	eq: +0.126 (-0.047)
	Player: Opponent: 52.18% (G:15.74% B:0.63%) 47.82% (G:11.10% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.020 (+0.106...+0.146) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 04 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 72596219 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 72596219 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 72596219 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 157 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 170 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---bBBBBA--Ab-c--c-eBAA-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 12pt checker is on her 13pt

1.	Rollout1	22/16	eq: +0.130
	Player: Opponent: 53.15% (G:15.42% B:0.63%) 46.85% (G:12.81% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.121...+0.139) - [100.0%] Duration: 1 hour 00 minute
2.	Rollout1	11/7 8/6	eq: +0.106 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 51.37% (G:16.58% B:0.63%) 48.63% (G:10.18% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.098...+0.114) - [0.0%] Duration: 53 minutes 53 seconds
3.	Rollout2	24/20 8/6	eq: +0.097 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 51.60% (G:14.87% B:0.52%) 48.40% (G:10.24% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.080...+0.114) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 55 seconds
4.	Rollout2	22/18 8/6	eq: +0.090 (-0.040)
	Player: Opponent: 51.56% (G:16.08% B:0.69%) 48.44% (G:12.16% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.074...+0.106) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 48 seconds
5.	Rollout2	22/20 8/4	eq: +0.088 (-0.042)
	Player: Opponent: 51.27% (G:15.40% B:0.57%) 48.73% (G:10.89% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.073...+0.104) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 47 seconds
6.	Rollout2	24/22 8/4	eq: +0.085 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 51.40% (G:14.70% B:0.57%) 48.60% (G:10.41% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.069...+0.102) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 46 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 59224902 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 59224902 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 164 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B-b-BBBA--Aaac--c-eBAA-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Blue's 4pt is changed to his 1pt

1.	Rollout1	24/20 8/6	eq: -0.174
	Player: Opponent: 44.53% (G:12.99% B:0.35%) 55.47% (G:11.69% B:0.47%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.183...-0.166) - [64.7%] Duration: 24 minutes 26 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/7 8/6	eq: -0.177 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 44.23% (G:13.64% B:0.33%) 55.77% (G:12.08% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.185...-0.168) - [35.3%] Duration: 22 minutes 24 seconds
3.	Rollout2	22/18 8/6	eq: -0.229 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 43.29% (G:13.30% B:0.40%) 56.71% (G:14.06% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.245...-0.213) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 40 seconds
4.	Rollout2	22/18 20/18	eq: -0.232 (-0.058)
	Player: Opponent: 44.12% (G:14.33% B:0.54%) 55.88% (G:17.88% B:1.36%) Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.251...-0.214) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 28 seconds
5.	Rollout2	22/16	eq: -0.249 (-0.074)
	Player: Opponent: 43.30% (G:13.45% B:0.41%) 56.70% (G:15.63% B:0.87%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.266...-0.232) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 47 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76220407 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76220407 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 164 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BbB-BBA--Aaac--c-eBAA-A-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: Blue's 5pt is changed to his 2pt

1.	Rollout1	11/7 8/6	eq: -0.095
	Player: Opponent: 46.61% (G:13.72% B:0.48%) 53.39% (G:11.57% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.103...-0.087) - [89.4%] Duration: 27 minutes 33 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/20 8/6	eq: -0.102 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 46.67% (G:13.20% B:0.48%) 53.33% (G:11.46% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.110...-0.094) - [10.6%] Duration: 30 minutes 03 seconds
3.	Rollout2	22/16	eq: -0.134 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 46.24% (G:14.00% B:0.66%) 53.76% (G:14.99% B:0.74%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.151...-0.117) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 04 seconds
4.	Rollout2	22/18 8/6	eq: -0.159 (-0.065)
	Player: Opponent: 45.57% (G:13.73% B:0.55%) 54.43% (G:14.36% B:0.69%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.176...-0.143) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 40 seconds
5.	Rollout2	24/22 8/4	eq: -0.169 (-0.075)
	Player: Opponent: 44.86% (G:13.01% B:0.56%) 55.14% (G:12.48% B:0.48%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.188...-0.151) - [0.0%] Duration: 13 minutes 57 seconds
6.	Rollout2	22/18 20/18	eq: -0.187 (-0.092)
	Player: Opponent: 46.16% (G:13.68% B:0.69%) 53.84% (G:17.53% B:1.38%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.204...-0.170) - [0.0%] Duration: 12 minutes 09 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 12502781 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 12502781 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 08-31-26
  Stick -- Tuesday, 15 September 2026, at 3:01 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-31-26
    Francesco -- Tuesday, 15 September 2026, at 11:43 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-31-26
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 15 September 2026, at 12:25 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-31-26
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 15 September 2026, at 1:52 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 08-31-26
      ah_clem -- Tuesday, 15 September 2026, at 1:54 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-31-26
    Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Tuesday, 15 September 2026, at 3:25 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-31-26
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 16 September 2026, at 12:37 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-31-26
    mamabear -- Wednesday, 16 September 2026, at 9:25 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 08-31-26 - Rollout
    Stick -- Thursday, 17 September 2026, at 6:32 p.m.
    • PotD 08-31-26 - Five best plays
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 4 October 2026, at 12:55 p.m.