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PotD 09-02-26 - Three best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 4 October 2026, at 6:00 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 09-02-26 - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 169 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-b--E-D--BdC---b-cc---A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	11/5(2) 8/2(2)	eq: +0.276
	Player: Opponent: 55.38% (G:19.03% B:0.66%) 44.62% (G:9.65% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.272...+0.281) - [68.4%] Duration: 14 minutes 46 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/18 13/7(3)	eq: +0.275 (-0.002)
	Player: Opponent: 56.16% (G:15.40% B:0.73%) 43.84% (G:10.06% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.270...+0.279) - [31.6%] Duration: 16 minutes 23 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/7(2) 11/5(2)	eq: +0.219 (-0.057)
	Player: Opponent: 54.32% (G:17.59% B:0.80%) 45.68% (G:10.30% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.204...+0.234) - [0.0%] Duration: 58.9 seconds
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position. As the difference between the top two plays is only .002, I sought a bit of separation between them (which turns out to be .054).

Below are three variants, each having a different best play.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 162 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-b--E-D--BcC---b-dc---A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: A White 13pt spare is on her 6pt

1.	Rollout1	24/18 13/7(3)	eq: +0.313
	Player: Opponent: 57.94% (G:14.22% B:0.71%) 42.06% (G:10.79% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.303...+0.323) - [100.0%] Duration: 27 minutes 53 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/5(2) 8/2(2)	eq: +0.285 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 56.64% (G:16.05% B:0.59%) 43.36% (G:9.95% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.275...+0.295) - [0.0%] Duration: 26 minutes 03 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/7(2) 11/5(2)	eq: +0.250 (-0.063)
	Player: Opponent: 55.70% (G:16.65% B:0.84%) 44.30% (G:10.46% B:0.35%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.235...+0.264) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 43 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 72596219 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 72596219 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 168 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-b--E-D--BdC---b-cba--A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: A White 5pt checker is on her 4pt

1.	Rollout1	11/5(2) 8/2(2)	eq: +0.171
	Player: Opponent: 52.51% (G:19.31% B:0.76%) 47.49% (G:10.65% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.162...+0.180) - [100.0%] Duration: 31 minutes 25 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/18 13/7(3)	eq: +0.142 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 52.76% (G:14.51% B:0.68%) 47.24% (G:11.18% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.133...+0.151) - [0.0%] Duration: 36 minutes 09 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/1* 11/5(2)	eq: +0.117 (-0.053)
	Player: Opponent: 51.22% (G:18.64% B:0.60%) 48.78% (G:11.72% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (+0.100...+0.135) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 50 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/7(2) 11/5(2)	eq: +0.111 (-0.060)
	Player: Opponent: 50.96% (G:19.14% B:1.00%) 49.04% (G:11.24% B:0.47%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.095...+0.127) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 26 seconds
1 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 12502781 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 12502781 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 167 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 147 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-b--E-D--BdC---b-bca--A-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: A White 6pt checker is on her 4pt

1.	Rollout1	13/7(2) 11/5(2)	eq: +0.218
	Player: Opponent: 53.84% (G:18.74% B:0.85%) 46.16% (G:9.71% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.209...+0.227) - [97.5%] Duration: 27 minutes 22 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/5(2) 8/2(2)	eq: +0.205 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 53.53% (G:18.82% B:0.63%) 46.47% (G:10.20% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.198...+0.213) - [1.7%] Duration: 28 minutes 54 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/18 13/7(3)	eq: +0.204 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 54.18% (G:15.66% B:0.76%) 45.82% (G:10.73% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.196...+0.212) - [0.9%] Duration: 33 minutes 21 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/1* 11/5(2)	eq: +0.192 (-0.026)
	Player: Opponent: 52.99% (G:19.29% B:0.58%) 47.01% (G:10.95% B:0.46%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.181...+0.203) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 24 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76220407 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76220407 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 09-02-26
  Stick -- Wednesday, 16 September 2026, at 9:27 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-02-26
    mamabear -- Wednesday, 16 September 2026, at 10:34 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 09-02-26
      Bob Koca -- Thursday, 17 September 2026, at 6:27 p.m.
      • Position of the Day 09-02-26
        mamabear -- Thursday, 17 September 2026, at 8:44 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-02-26
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 16 September 2026, at 11:01 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-02-26
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 16 September 2026, at 11:24 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-02-26
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 17 September 2026, at 1:21 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-02-26
    Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Friday, 18 September 2026, at 6:30 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-02-26 - Rollout
    Stick -- Friday, 18 September 2026, at 7:44 p.m.
    • PotD 09-02-26 - Three best plays
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 4 October 2026, at 6:00 p.m.