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PotD - Four best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 6 October 2026, at 12:16 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 09-08-26 - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 118 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 118 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B--F-C---bD---bbdb--b--:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Original Position

1.	Rollout1	13/9(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.697
	Player: Opponent: 69.37% (G:5.52% B:0.10%) 30.63% (G:2.83% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.688...+0.706) - [100.0%] Duration: 28.3 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/4(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.665 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 67.65% (G:7.07% B:0.10%) 32.35% (G:3.73% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.655...+0.674) - [0.0%] Duration: 24.6 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/9(4)	eq: +0.636 (-0.061)
	Player: Opponent: 68.65% (G:1.97% B:0.03%) 31.35% (G:1.14% B:0.02%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.626...+0.646) - [0.0%] Duration: 27.0 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/5(2)	eq: +0.631 (-0.066)
	Player: Opponent: 68.10% (G:5.19% B:0.08%) 31.90% (G:3.27% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.622...+0.640) - [0.0%] Duration: 30.7 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are three variants. Altogether, four positions with four different best plays represented.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 125 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 118 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B--F-C---cD---bbcb--b--:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: A White 6pt checker is on her 13pt

1.	Rollout1	13/9(4)	eq: +0.873
	Player: Opponent: 73.82% (G:4.05% B:0.05%) 26.18% (G:1.40% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.867...+0.878) - [100.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 15 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/9(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.860 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 72.62% (G:8.00% B:0.07%) 27.38% (G:2.92% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.854...+0.865) - [0.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 08 seconds
3.	Rollout2	8/4(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.817 (-0.056)
	Player: Opponent: 70.75% (G:10.40% B:0.10%) 29.25% (G:3.52% B:0.08%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.809...+0.825) - [0.0%] Duration: 3 minutes 21 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/5(2)	eq: +0.773 (-0.099)
	Player: Opponent: 71.12% (G:7.64% B:0.12%) 28.88% (G:3.35% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.764...+0.783) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 38 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 49315447 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 49315447 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 121 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 118 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B--F-C---bD---bbdc--a--:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: A White 2pt checker is on her 5pt

1.	Rollout1	8/4(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.804
	Player: Opponent: 70.67% (G:9.64% B:0.14%) 29.33% (G:3.41% B:0.09%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.794...+0.815) - [100.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 18 seconds
2.	Rollout1	13/9(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.758 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 71.05% (G:6.12% B:0.09%) 28.95% (G:2.78% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.747...+0.769) - [0.0%] Duration: 4 minutes 56 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/9(4)	eq: +0.729 (-0.076)
	Player: Opponent: 70.78% (G:2.77% B:0.04%) 29.22% (G:1.36% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.718...+0.739) - [0.0%] Duration: 5 minutes 57 seconds
4.	Rollout1	13/5(2)	eq: +0.678 (-0.126)
	Player: Opponent: 69.20% (G:6.19% B:0.11%) 30.80% (G:3.52% B:0.10%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.669...+0.688) - [0.0%] Duration: 6 minutes 40 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2123533 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 112 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 118 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B--F-C---bD---bbd---d--:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Two White 5pt checkers are on her 2pt

1.	Rollout1	13/5(2)	eq: +0.724
	Player: Opponent: 70.14% (G:7.53% B:0.18%) 29.86% (G:2.38% B:0.06%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (+0.718...+0.729) - [100.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 36 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/4(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.707 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 68.76% (G:8.83% B:0.12%) 31.24% (G:2.00% B:0.04%) Conf.: ± 0.005 (+0.703...+0.712) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 46 seconds
3.	Rollout2	13/9(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.699 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 69.77% (G:6.68% B:0.13%) 30.23% (G:1.81% B:0.03%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.689...+0.708) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds
4.	Rollout2	13/9(4)	eq: +0.509 (-0.215)
	Player: Opponent: 65.47% (G:2.57% B:0.06%) 34.53% (G:0.93% B:0.01%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.500...+0.518) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76220407 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 76220407 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 09-08-26
  Stick -- Wednesday, 23 September 2026, at 8:30 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-08-26
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 23 September 2026, at 1:53 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-08-26
    pierrez -- Thursday, 24 September 2026, at 5:56 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-08-26
    John O'Hagan -- Thursday, 24 September 2026, at 7:40 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-08-26
    Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Thursday, 24 September 2026, at 3:11 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-08-26
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 24 September 2026, at 4:27 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 09-08-26
      Stick -- Saturday, 26 September 2026, at 8:27 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 09-08-26 - Rollout
    Stick -- Saturday, 26 September 2026, at 8:28 p.m.
    • PotD - Four best plays
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 6 October 2026, at 12:16 a.m.