PotD 09-09-26 - Four best plays

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PotD 09-09-26 - Four best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Tuesday, 6 October 2026, at 1:38 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 09-09-26 - Rollout (Colin Owen)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 104

Unlimited Game
Beaver

pip: 111
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--BBCAC-A-----bbAc-ccBaa--:1:1:1:53:0:0:2:0:10
Original Position

1. Rollout¹ 21/18 21/16 eq: -0.1531
Player:
Opponent: 37.06% (G:3.11% B:0.07%)
62.94% (G:4.77% B:0.17%) Conf.: ą0.0010 (-0.1540...-0.1521) - [100.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 49 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 21/16 8/5 eq: -0.2003 (-0.0473)
Player:
Opponent: 35.48% (G:2.12% B:0.05%)
64.52% (G:4.40% B:0.07%) Conf.: ą0.0009 (-0.2012...-0.1994) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 11 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 16/11 8/5 eq: -0.2328 (-0.0797)
Player:
Opponent: 33.52% (G:1.86% B:0.03%)
66.48% (G:2.25% B:0.04%) Conf.: ą0.0009 (-0.2337...-0.2319) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 46 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 21/16 4/1 eq: -0.2385 (-0.0854)
Player:
Opponent: 34.33% (G:3.24% B:0.05%)
65.67% (G:6.59% B:0.19%) Conf.: ą0.0009 (-0.2394...-0.2376) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 28 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/1 eq: -0.2442 (-0.0912)
Player:
Opponent: 33.29% (G:2.60% B:0.04%)
66.71% (G:3.30% B:0.08%) Conf.: ą0.0009 (-0.2451...-0.2433) - [0.0%]
Duration: 7 minutes 05 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 16/11 4/1 eq: -0.2464 (-0.0934)
Player:
Opponent: 33.22% (G:2.09% B:0.04%)
66.78% (G:3.08% B:0.16%) Conf.: ą0.0009 (-0.2473...-0.2455) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 24 seconds

¹ 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21976511
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below are three variants. Altogether, four positions with four different best plays represented.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 108

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 111
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--BBCAC-A-----bbAc-dcBa---:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 2pt checker is on her 6pt

1. Rollout¹ 21/16 8/5 eq: -0.141
Player:
Opponent: 38.06% (G:3.03% B:0.06%)
61.94% (G:5.43% B:0.09%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.146...-0.135) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 00 second
2. Rollout¹ 16/11 8/5 eq: -0.181 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent: 35.57% (G:2.04% B:0.04%)
64.43% (G:2.33% B:0.04%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.186...-0.176) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 16/11 4/1 eq: -0.199 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent: 35.20% (G:2.44% B:0.04%)
64.80% (G:3.62% B:0.23%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.204...-0.194) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 21/18 21/16 eq: -0.200 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent: 36.24% (G:4.61% B:0.11%)
63.76% (G:8.30% B:0.34%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.206...-0.194) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 10 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 16/11 6/3 eq: -0.209 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent: 34.59% (G:2.02% B:0.04%)
65.41% (G:3.16% B:0.10%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.214...-0.204) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 16/13 8/3 eq: -0.215 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent: 34.41% (G:1.93% B:0.03%)
65.59% (G:3.33% B:0.10%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.220...-0.210) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second
7. Rollout¹ 16/8 eq: -0.218 (-0.077)
Player:
Opponent: 34.13% (G:1.86% B:0.03%)
65.87% (G:3.15% B:0.08%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.223...-0.213) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.2 seconds
8. Rollout¹ 16/13 6/1 eq: -0.218 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent: 34.43% (G:2.15% B:0.04%)
65.57% (G:4.04% B:0.30%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.223...-0.213) - [0.0%]
Duration: 56.1 seconds
9. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/1 eq: -0.228 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent: 33.99% (G:3.35% B:0.06%)
66.01% (G:3.97% B:0.10%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.234...-0.223) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2123533
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 97

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 111
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--BBCAC-A-----bbAb-ccBaaa-:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: White's 8pt spare is on her 1pt

1. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/1 eq: -0.317
Player:
Opponent: 30.21% (G:2.04% B:0.05%)
69.79% (G:2.64% B:0.05%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (-0.320...-0.314) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 21 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 16/11 8/5 eq: -0.325 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent: 29.79% (G:1.43% B:0.03%)
70.21% (G:1.89% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.002 (-0.328...-0.323) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 04 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 6/1 4/1 eq: -0.329 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent: 29.89% (G:1.76% B:0.03%)
70.11% (G:2.71% B:0.07%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (-0.331...-0.326) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 14 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 21/18 21/16 eq: -0.329 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent: 29.84% (G:0.80% B:0.02%)
70.16% (G:3.09% B:0.05%) Conf.: ą 0.003 (-0.332...-0.327) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 54 seconds
5. Rollout² 16/11 4/1 eq: -0.335 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent: 29.62% (G:1.56% B:0.03%)
70.38% (G:2.66% B:0.17%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.340...-0.330) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45.1 seconds
6. Rollout² 21/16 8/5 eq: -0.342 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent: 29.77% (G:1.69% B:0.04%)
70.23% (G:4.20% B:0.04%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.347...-0.337) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49315447
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 49315447
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 103

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 111
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=--BBCAC-A-----bbAc-ccB-b--:1:1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: White's 3pt checker is on her 2pt

1. Rollout¹ 16/11 8/5 eq: -0.236
Player:
Opponent: 33.41% (G:1.88% B:0.04%)
66.59% (G:2.01% B:0.03%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.241...-0.231) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 16/11 4/1 eq: -0.254 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent: 33.02% (G:1.99% B:0.04%)
66.98% (G:2.94% B:0.19%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.260...-0.248) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 00 second
3. Rollout¹ 16/13 8/3 eq: -0.265 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent: 32.41% (G:1.73% B:0.03%)
67.59% (G:2.86% B:0.09%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.270...-0.260) - [0.0%]
Duration: 51.8 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 16/11 6/3 eq: -0.265 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent: 32.45% (G:1.76% B:0.03%)
67.55% (G:2.81% B:0.11%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.271...-0.259) - [0.0%]
Duration: 55.0 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 16/8 eq: -0.269 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent: 32.09% (G:1.70% B:0.04%)
67.91% (G:2.73% B:0.07%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.274...-0.264) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42.7 seconds
6. Rollout¹ 16/13 6/1 eq: -0.270 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent: 32.32% (G:1.76% B:0.03%)
67.68% (G:3.26% B:0.22%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.275...-0.264) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43.5 seconds
7. Rollout¹ 16/11 5/2 eq: -0.283 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent: 31.52% (G:1.45% B:0.03%)
68.48% (G:2.74% B:0.07%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.289...-0.277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 49.6 seconds
8. Rollout¹ 8/5 6/1 eq: -0.302 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent: 31.17% (G:2.81% B:0.04%)
68.83% (G:3.67% B:0.10%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.307...-0.297) - [0.0%]
Duration: 58.2 seconds
9. Rollout¹ 6/1 4/1 eq: -0.323 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent: 30.29% (G:2.72% B:0.03%)
69.71% (G:4.31% B:0.15%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.329...-0.318) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 02 seconds
10. Rollout¹ 21/16 8/5 eq: -0.371 (-0.134)
Player:
Opponent: 29.00% (G:1.50% B:0.02%)
71.00% (G:5.73% B:0.06%) Conf.: ą 0.005 (-0.376...-0.366) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds
11. Rollout¹ 8/3 4/1 eq: -0.373 (-0.136)
Player:
Opponent: 28.65% (G:2.60% B:0.04%)
71.35% (G:5.66% B:0.27%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.378...-0.367) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 10 seconds
12. Rollout¹ 21/18 21/16 eq: -0.383 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent: 28.92% (G:2.96% B:0.08%)
71.08% (G:8.26% B:0.38%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.388...-0.377) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 48 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76220407
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

Position of the Day 09-09-26
Stick -- Thursday, 24 September 2026, at 9:35 a.m.
- Position of the Day 09-09-26
  Colin Owen -- Thursday, 24 September 2026, at 11:06 a.m.
- Position of the Day 09-09-26
  ah_clem -- Thursday, 24 September 2026, at 3:05 p.m.
- Position of the Day 09-09-26
  Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Thursday, 24 September 2026, at 3:47 p.m.
- Position of the Day 09-09-26
  Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 24 September 2026, at 4:40 p.m.
- Position of the Day 09-09-26 - Rollout
  Stick -- Sunday, 27 September 2026, at 11:51 p.m.
  - Position of the Day 09-09-26 - Rollout
    Colin Owen -- Monday, 28 September 2026, at 3:25 p.m.
    - PotD 09-09-26 - Four best plays
      Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 6 October 2026, at 1:38 a.m.

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