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Position of the Day 09-21-26

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 7 October 2026, at 2:30 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 09-21-26 (Stick)

We expose a double shot unless we roll 66, 55, 44, 33, 21, or 65. That's 6 market losers (21 isn't).

Getting hit is not game over, but figuring 50% GWC for white with the double shot roughly balances the more than 50 to hit with the our chances after being hit.

22% to shake one of the above numbers plus 50% to win if we don't gives us about 39 +22 = 61% GWC. Doesn't seem like enough. Maybe the gammons are enough to push it to a cube, and white won't have a cube unless we're hit and then it would appear to be a cash. So, we're not eating an 8 cube, but holding means we might eke out a win if we're hit.

So, I'm taking a shake here. Might be a practical double since some will pass.

ND/T.

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