A very volatile position. If you hit, you win about 92-93% of the time. If not, you almost always lose. A clear no redouble at most scores. It might be a recube though because a gammon will cost you the match regardless if the cube is on 2 or 4.
You need to figure out the minimum winning chances you'll need to consider redoubling. This is also known as the low end of the doubling window. You figure this out using risk/risk+gain. The risk is the extra match winning chances you lose with the cube on 4 vs with the cube on 2.
If you don't redouble and lose a single game, your MWC will be ~16%; do redouble and lose a single game and you'll lose the match with 0% MWC. The risk is then 16%. Now the gain, do redouble and win gives you about 75% MWC; don't redouble and win gives you 50% MWC. The gain is then 25%. r/r+G is then 16/41, a little less than 40%.
You however do have to take gammons into account when figuring out the minimum doubling point. Regardless if you redouble or not, a gammon loss will cost you the match.
Since about a quarter of your losses will be gammons, redoubling is only risking about 75% of 16% which is 12%. The doubling window therefore opens at about 12/37.
We hit with 13/36 and win about 12 of those. So our winning chances are slightly above the minimum doubling point. However we don't win all 13 of our hits and we don't lose all of our 23 non-hitters. Experience has shown that when your winning chances are just over the minimum doubling point, it's usually wrong to double unless it's a last roll of the game or if you win 100% of your hits and lose all of your misses.
Therefore this isn't quite a redouble.
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| XGID=-BBCBBB------------aAccccA:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 33.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 33.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 66.05% (G:16.34% B:0.23%) | 66.35% (G:19.36% B:0.06%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0.472 | -0.448 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | -0.406 | ±0.001 (-0.407..-0.405) |
| Redouble/Take: | -0.448 (-0.042) | ±0.002 (-0.450..-0.446) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+1.406) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 2.8% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. First 12 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Search interval: Large | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 4.5 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
If about 1/3 of our losses will be gammons, then it becomes slightly correct to redouble.
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| XGID=--BCBBBB-----------aAccccA:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:5:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 33.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) | 33.52% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 66.27% (G:23.72% B:0.57%) | 66.48% (G:33.04% B:0.09%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0.545 | -0.453 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | -0.469 (-0.015) | ±0.001 (-0.470..-0.468) |
| Redouble/Take: | -0.453 | ±0.003 (-0.456..-0.451) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+1.453) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. First 12 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller Search interval: Large | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 12.5 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2