I'm a Stickler when it comes to some backgammon positions. Did a couple of you get the bottom line correct? I think so ... but due to lack of analysis you're not getting any kindergartenesque smiley faced stickers from me. Look at the original position and Variant 1 shown below. Sure, maybe you got the one I posted technically correct but in no world do I believe you'd have doubled Variant 1 and not doubled the original position.
The point of these positions, like most positions, isn't even to get the right answer. It's to understand what's going on. These positions are important in my opinion because they show how important spare placement can be in the later game even in a position where it doesn't seem to matter. Sometimes in the early game we toggle a checker here or shove a checker there and it's wrong and we don't understand why. This is why. Waaaaay down the road it will matter where some of those checkers in a wide variety of positions. We tend to note it matters immediately but fail to recognize this long term importance.
How about variant 2, would we have beavered?
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| XGID=-ICBaa--------A--cbcbba---:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 55.85% (G:12.18% B:0.00%) | 56.45% (G:12.14% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 44.15% (G:3.92% B:0.08%) | 43.55% (G:4.15% B:0.09%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.199 | +0.416 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.243 | ±0.003 (+0.239..+0.246) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.213 (-0.030) | ±0.007 (+0.205..+0.220) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.757) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Take | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.7% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 17.8 seconds | ||
Variant 1
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| XGID=-GDCaa--------A--cbcbba---:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 57.41% (G:13.45% B:0.00%) | 58.01% (G:13.20% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 42.59% (G:2.64% B:0.07%) | 41.99% (G:2.71% B:0.06%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.256 | +0.529 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.313 (-0.028) | ±0.004 (+0.309..+0.317) |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.341 | ±0.008 (+0.332..+0.349) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.659) | |
| Best Cube action: Redouble / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 15.0 seconds | ||
Variant 2
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| XGID=-ICBaa--------A--bbcbbb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 52.75% (G:7.47% B:0.00%) | 53.19% (G:7.51% B:0.00%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 47.25% (G:3.79% B:0.08%) | 46.81% (G:4.21% B:0.10%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.091 | +0.192 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.130 | ±0.003 (+0.127..+0.133) |
| Redouble/Beaver: | -0.076 (-0.206) | ±0.013 (-0.089..-0.063) |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.870) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 16.1% | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 13.7 seconds | ||