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Position of the Day 09-24-26 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 13 October 2026, at 8:57 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 09-24-26 - Rollout (John O'Hagan)

Many of us would misplay some of Blue's non-escaping numbers like 53,52,32,21,11 in Stick's original position. That might be enough to give White a take.

So we've done this sort of analysis before with the replies to the opening rolls, esp. the opening rolls that are slightly inferior according to bot rollouts. For example, an opening [54] played two down. According to XG the split is about .015+ better than two down with an opening [54]. If your opponent however doesn't know he should be slotting with non natural aces (and not pulling two down with other rolls) you can make up a good chunk of equity making the slot correct.

However in our original position we're talking about swinging ~0.125 worth of equity. That's a lot. The main issue is even if the doubler does misplay all of those rolls that only happens 1/4th of the time. And how big are the errors we're making? They'd have to be like the biggest error of your entire weekend to make that dent since it only happens 1/4th of the time. The misplays can't swing nearly enough equity.

Stick

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