[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Position of the Day 09-25-26 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 13 October 2026, at 9:03 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 09-25-26 (Stick)

Another lesson in the volume of 'where are my spares'? Sometimes in the early game we push spares to places we don't want them to be and maybe get dinged by the bot for it. We get dinged harshly because later in the game these spares and their placement can become very important. We're too short sighted to see it in the early game but when we arrive to a position like this in the later game and look at a variant (see below) with even one simple spare moved back one simple pip it makes a big difference.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 68
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cFBB-BB--------Abbbbbb---:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Variant
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 138
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 69
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-cECB-BB--------Abbbbbb---:2:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.89% (G:21.14% B:1.45%) 65.04% (G:20.97% B:1.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.11% (G:3.34% B:0.13%) 34.96% (G:3.35% B:0.13%)
Cubeless Equities +0.489 +0.980
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.780±0.009 (+0.771..+0.790)
Redouble/Take:+0.776 (-0.004)±0.012 (+0.765..+0.788)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.220)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.8%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:70.2%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 27.9 seconds

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.