If you've been around BGO for a while (and all of you have) you've probably noticed that from time to time when I post positions I try to make them borderline decisions. Sometimes it's for use as a reference position if it happens to drop into anyone's memory. Sometimes because the details of the position and not the position itself can be used as a reference.
We should have a hard and fast formula for this type of position. Why don't we? Idk, my excuse is I'm lazy but someone out there should be motivated. The scenario is:
- We have escaped all of our checkers to the midpoint
- The opponent has escaped his checkers except for the one he just ran into the outfield that we're shooting at.
Having a recipe for the race lead, amount of shots, and board strength should yield the correct answer as often as your every day race formula. I have a rough and tumble formula for this in my head that I apply OtB but I've never put down the details and thoroughly tested it. Maybe it'll be in my 3rd book. One thing of note most of these positions fall between 95-125 pips which makes working with ~10% race lead a common reference point.
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| XGID=--B-BBB--BAAbB-Abc-d-b-b--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 76.35% (G:3.78% B:0.05%) | 76.82% (G:4.20% B:0.04%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 23.65% (G:0.75% B:0.02%) | 23.18% (G:0.84% B:0.02%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.558 | +1.140 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.833 (-0.159) | ±0.003 (+0.830..+0.835) |
| Double/Take: | +0.991 | ±0.005 (+0.987..+0.996) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.009) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds | ||