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Make up your mind XIV - Rollout - 2 game plans

Posted By: pierrez
Date: Friday, 16 October 2026, at 4:09 p.m.

In Response To: Make up your mind XIV (pierrez)

This position didn't attract interest at all.
Nevertheless, I find it interesting because when playing a backgame, you are usually hesitating between 3 game plans:
1 Hit compulsively and spreading checkers inside his homeboard in order to get hit back and to gain timing
2 Hit and prime in order to let your opponent throw a bad roll and start cracking her prime
3 Hit outside in order to deter your opponent to close the prime (here her 8 point)

1 Here Blue timing (for a 1-2 backgame) is far from ideal - 50 pips deficit - So 8/7*, 6/5, 3/1 fulfill the criteria of the first game plan
2 Hitting and starting priming with 8/7*, 7/5, 6/5 fits to the second game plan
3 Hitting both checkers outside with 16/13*, 8/7* starts the third game plan

Finally only game plan 2 and game plan 3 are valid.





White is Joueur 2

score: 2
pip: 107
3 point match
pip: 157
score: 2

Blue is Joueur 1
XGID=--BC--CaB---aa--AabcbbbBB-:0:0:1:11:2:2:0:3:8
Blue to play 11

1.Rollout18/7* 7/5 6/5eq: -0,558
Player:
Opponent:		22,12% (G:8,83% B:1,57%)
77,88% (G:38,30% B:13,47%)		Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,564...-0,552) - [96,8%]
Duration: 7 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout116/13* 8/7* eq: -0,566 (-0,008)
Player:
Opponent:		21,72% (G:10,08% B:1,41%)
78,28% (G:37,54% B:11,97%)		Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,572...-0,560) - [3,2%]
Duration: 8 minutes 16 seconds
3.Rollout116/13* 13/12* eq: -0,575 (-0,018)
Player:
Opponent:		21,23% (G:9,99% B:1,48%)
78,77% (G:36,28% B:11,01%)		Conf.: ± 0,006 (-0,582...-0,569) - [0,0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 51 seconds
4.Rollout18/7* 6/5 3/1eq: -0,589 (-0,031)
Player:
Opponent:		20,55% (G:3,60% B:0,39%)
79,45% (G:47,18% B:20,18%)		Conf.: ± 0,007 (-0,596...-0,582) - [0,0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 20 seconds
5.Rollout18/7* 6/4 2/1eq: -0,590 (-0,032)
Player:
Opponent:		20,52% (G:1,01% B:0,06%)
79,48% (G:49,34% B:25,40%)		Conf.: ± 0,008 (-0,598...-0,582) - [0,0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 50 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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