In 2011, I posted 53P-64S-22. This position is less likely to arise (because 64P is the correct reply to opening 53P) but because of the additional option of H (24/16*) it is more interesting than 53P-62S-22 or 53P-63S-22.
One position I like to compare 53P-64S-22 (left-hand/first diagram) to is 42P-53P-64S-22 (right-hand/second diagram). White's 4pt is added, and (instructively) the decision between the shift-play 6/4(2) 3/1*(2)) and 24/16* is much closer.
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 157 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-a-B--DaB---dE--ac-e----B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 | | 53P-64S-22 |
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 6/4(2) 3/1*(2) | eq: +0.443 | | Player:
Opponent: | 57.17% (G:25.59% B:0.76%)
42.83% (G:9.70% B:0.46%) | |
| | 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/16* | eq: +0.368 (-0.075) | | Player:
Opponent: | 57.68% (G:18.88% B:1.02%)
42.32% (G:9.95% B:0.40%) | |
| | 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/11(2) 3/1*(2) | eq: +0.267 (-0.175) | | Player:
Opponent: | 54.07% (G:23.07% B:0.69%)
45.93% (G:11.44% B:0.60%) | |
| | 4. | XG Roller++ | 24/22 13/7* | eq: +0.267 (-0.176) | | Player:
Opponent: | 54.99% (G:19.29% B:1.13%)
45.01% (G:11.62% B:0.52%) | |
| | 5. | XG Roller++ | 13/11(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.253 (-0.190) | | Player:
Opponent: | 55.06% (G:18.36% B:0.75%)
44.94% (G:10.90% B:0.51%) | |
| | 6. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 13/7* | eq: +0.238 (-0.205) | | Player:
Opponent: | 54.47% (G:19.79% B:1.11%)
45.53% (G:12.39% B:0.71%) | |
| | 7. | XG Roller++ | 24/22(2) 3/1*(2) | eq: +0.220 (-0.223) | | Player:
Opponent: | 52.97% (G:19.95% B:0.49%)
47.03% (G:9.97% B:0.40%) | |
| | 8. | XG Roller++ | 24/22(2) 6/4(2) | eq: +0.218 (-0.225) | | Player:
Opponent: | 54.02% (G:15.48% B:0.50%)
45.98% (G:8.67% B:0.29%) | |
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| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 151 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-a-B--DaB---dE--ab-d-b--B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 | | 42P-53P-64S-22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/4(2) 3/1*(2) | eq: +0.067 | | Player:
Opponent: | 49.56% (G:21.79% B:0.66%)
50.44% (G:14.46% B:0.77%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (+0.059...+0.074) - [100.0%]
Duration: 51 minutes 18 seconds |
| | 2. | Rollout1 | 24/16* | eq: +0.048 (-0.019) | | Player:
Opponent: | 50.99% (G:15.91% B:0.87%)
49.01% (G:14.86% B:0.63%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.040...+0.056) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 hour 07 minutes |
| | 3. | Rollout2 | 24/20(2) | eq: +0.033 (-0.034) | | Player:
Opponent: | 50.26% (G:10.69% B:0.29%)
49.74% (G:7.58% B:0.33%) | Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.022...+0.044) - [0.0%]
Duration: 15 minutes 49 seconds |
| | 4. | Rollout2 | 24/22(2) 6/4(2) | eq: -0.037 (-0.104) | | Player:
Opponent: | 48.34% (G:13.34% B:0.48%)
51.66% (G:10.45% B:0.40%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.053...-0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 45 seconds |
| | 5. | Rollout2 | 13/11(2) 6/4(2) | eq: -0.073 (-0.139) | | Player:
Opponent: | 48.03% (G:15.31% B:0.72%)
51.97% (G:15.49% B:0.80%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.089...-0.056) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 58 seconds |
| | 6. | Rollout2 | 24/22(2) 3/1*(2) | eq: -0.078 (-0.145) | | Player:
Opponent: | 46.15% (G:16.41% B:0.42%)
53.85% (G:12.60% B:0.57%) | Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.092...-0.065) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 32 seconds |
| | 7. | Rollout2 | 24/22(2) 13/11(2) | eq: -0.090 (-0.156) | | Player:
Opponent: | 46.92% (G:13.20% B:0.46%)
53.08% (G:11.57% B:0.46%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.106...-0.074) - [0.0%]
Duration: 14 minutes 57 seconds |
| | | 1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99603844
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99603844
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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The position Stick posted (copied below) is 31P-53P-64S-22. Here, 24/16* is blocked, so we do not get to see how that hitting play would fare. If we fake it by comparing White-cube evaluations after each play, 24/16* evaluates better than 6/4*(2) 3/1*(2) by .028. In other words, if 24/16* were legal, it would be better than the shift play that tops Stick's rollout.
Nack
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 153 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-B--DaB---dE--ab-db---B-:0:0:1:22:0:0:3:0:10 |
| 31P-53P-64S-22 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 6/4(2) 3/1*(2) | eq: -0.030 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.25% (G:20.56% B:0.58%)
52.75% (G:15.14% B:0.85%) | Conf.: ą 0.014 (-0.044...-0.016) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 17 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 6/4(2) | eq: -0.129 (-0.099) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.90% (G:13.15% B:0.53%)
54.10% (G:11.88% B:0.48%) | Conf.: ą 0.015 (-0.143...-0.114) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 31 seconds |
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| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/11(2) 6/4(2) | eq: -0.133 (-0.103) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.30% (G:14.57% B:0.69%)
53.70% (G:15.37% B:0.72%) | Conf.: ą 0.014 (-0.147...-0.119) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 24 seconds |
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| 4. | Rollout1 | 24/22(2) 13/11(2) | eq: -0.181 (-0.151) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.25% (G:13.02% B:0.46%)
55.75% (G:12.68% B:0.56%) | Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.195...-0.168) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 29 seconds |
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| 5. | Rollout1 | 13/11 13/7* | eq: -0.222 (-0.192) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.75% (G:15.46% B:0.91%)
55.25% (G:18.60% B:1.31%) | Conf.: ą 0.017 (-0.239...-0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds |
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1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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