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Rollout

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 25 October 2026, at 9:08 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-01-26 (Stick)

White missed with a 54 (played 11/6 13/9). Blue on roll is a cubeless underdog (~46%) but owning the cube in a long race like this makes Blue a cubeful favorite (+.088). If White had correctly not doubled, he'd be a cubeful favorite on his 16 misses.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 112
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 117
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B---AD-D---bC-Aad-ec-----:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 45.93% (G:0.08% B:0.00%) 45.87% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 54.07% (G:0.07% B:0.00%) 54.13% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities -0.081 -0.165
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.088±0.005 (+0.083..+0.093)
Redouble/Beaver:-1.130 (-1.218)±0.022 (-1.151..-1.108)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.912)
Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 36.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
First 12 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Large
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 23 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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