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Position of the Day 10-05-26 - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 27 October 2026, at 6:34 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-05-26 (Stick)

It's extra hard for it not to be a double, especially an initial double, when you have the opponent on the bar versus the best five point board.

See variant below that's a few pips difference and swings a big chunk of equity. (though somewhat surprisingly(?) still a take)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 119 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 129 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BBBBC-----b-b--AbbbBbbA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.17% (G:30.20% B:0.57%)	64.83% (G:31.44% B:0.61%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.83% (G:8.92% B:0.47%)	35.17% (G:9.06% B:0.50%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.497	+1.043
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.749 (-0.028)	±0.006 (+0.743..+0.754)
Double/Take:	+0.776	±0.009 (+0.768..+0.785)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.224)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 02 seconds

---

Variant

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 119 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 125 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-BBBBC-----bAb---bbbBbbA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.25% (G:31.93% B:0.55%)	67.47% (G:33.75% B:0.69%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.75% (G:8.36% B:0.51%)	32.53% (G:8.62% B:0.59%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.561	+1.204
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.807 (-0.152)	±0.004 (+0.803..+0.812)
Double/Take:	+0.960	±0.009 (+0.951..+0.968)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.040)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 54 seconds

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 10-05-26
  Stick -- Sunday, 25 October 2026, at 4:08 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-05-26
    Francesco -- Sunday, 25 October 2026, at 5:48 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-05-26
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 26 October 2026, at 12:04 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-05-26
    Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Monday, 26 October 2026, at 12:08 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-05-26
    John O'Hagan -- Monday, 26 October 2026, at 1:00 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-05-26
    ah_clem -- Monday, 26 October 2026, at 6:58 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-05-26 - Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 27 October 2026, at 6:34 p.m.