PotD 10-03-26 - Six best plays

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PotD 10-03-26 - Six best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 30 October 2026, at 11:11 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-03-26 - Rollout (Stick)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 140
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=a---ABBbE--AcC----bcb--bA-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/5 eq: -0.168
Player:
Opponent: 47.12% (G:11.41% B:0.47%)
52.88% (G:18.22% B:0.68%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.175...-0.161) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 42 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/21 8/6 eq: -0.191 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent: 46.69% (G:11.27% B:0.46%)
53.31% (G:18.70% B:0.71%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.197...-0.184) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 40 seconds
3. Rollout² 24/21 13/11 eq: -0.202 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent: 46.68% (G:10.32% B:0.47%)
53.32% (G:18.16% B:0.53%) Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.215...-0.188) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44.2 seconds
4. Rollout² 13/11 8/5 eq: -0.254 (-0.086)
Player:
Opponent: 44.98% (G:11.50% B:0.42%)
55.02% (G:17.37% B:0.59%) Conf.: ą 0.013 (-0.267...-0.240) - [0.0%]
Duration: 42.5 seconds
5. Rollout² 8/6 8/5 eq: -0.270 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent: 44.39% (G:12.27% B:0.50%)
55.61% (G:17.54% B:0.74%) Conf.: ą 0.012 (-0.283...-0.258) - [0.0%]
Duration: 40.0 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below are several variants. Altogether, six positions with six different best plays represented.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=a---ABBbC-BAcC----bcb--bA-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: Two Blue 8pt checkers are on his 10pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/11 eq: -0.104
Player:
Opponent: 49.25% (G:9.84% B:0.46%)
50.75% (G:16.50% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.118...-0.090) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 46 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/22 11/8 eq: -0.146 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent: 48.09% (G:10.29% B:0.43%)
51.91% (G:16.94% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.160...-0.132) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 15 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 24/22 13/10 eq: -0.159 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent: 47.69% (G:10.45% B:0.49%)
52.31% (G:17.72% B:0.60%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.173...-0.144) - [0.0%]
Duration: 10 minutes 02 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/5 eq: -0.161 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent: 47.44% (G:11.18% B:0.49%)
52.56% (G:18.16% B:0.62%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.174...-0.147) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 58 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 24/21 8/6 eq: -0.172 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent: 47.50% (G:10.92% B:0.51%)
52.50% (G:19.04% B:0.73%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.186...-0.158) - [0.0%]
Duration: 9 minutes 59 seconds

¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1905467
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 146

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 158
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=a---ABBbC--AcC---Bbcb--bA-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Two Blue 8pt checkers are on his 17pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 11/8 eq: -0.264
Player:
Opponent: 44.96% (G:10.19% B:0.42%)
55.04% (G:19.32% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.272...-0.256) - [60.8%]
Duration: 44 minutes 12 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/21 13/11 eq: -0.265 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent: 45.29% (G:9.96% B:0.44%)
54.71% (G:19.43% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.274...-0.257) - [39.1%]
Duration: 46 minutes 29 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/5 eq: -0.280 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent: 44.88% (G:11.07% B:0.51%)
55.12% (G:21.56% B:0.81%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.289...-0.272) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 12 seconds
4. Rollout² 24/21 8/6 eq: -0.295 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent: 44.57% (G:10.58% B:0.48%)
55.43% (G:21.31% B:0.81%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.309...-0.280) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 16 seconds
5. Rollout² 13/11 8/5 eq: -0.307 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent: 44.18% (G:11.30% B:0.46%)
55.82% (G:20.95% B:0.87%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.324...-0.289) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 49 seconds
6. Rollout² 11/6 eq: -0.311 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent: 43.98% (G:11.43% B:0.47%)
56.02% (G:20.14% B:0.71%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.327...-0.295) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 51 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44717885
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44717885
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 150

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 140
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=a---ABBbE--AcC----bdb--aA-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: A White 2pt checker is on her 6pt

1. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/5 eq: +0.106
Player:
Opponent: 52.17% (G:18.19% B:0.68%)
47.83% (G:14.06% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.096...+0.116) - [99.9%]
Duration: 20 minutes 15 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/5 eq: +0.081 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent: 51.93% (G:16.39% B:0.65%)
48.07% (G:14.01% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.071...+0.092) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 03 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 24/21 8/6 eq: +0.079 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent: 52.63% (G:12.80% B:0.46%)
47.37% (G:13.37% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.069...+0.089) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 22 seconds
4. Rollout² 11/6 eq: +0.072 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent: 51.72% (G:15.66% B:0.65%)
48.28% (G:13.31% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.057...+0.087) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 52 seconds
5. Rollout² 24/22 8/5 eq: +0.066 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent: 52.27% (G:13.07% B:0.50%)
47.73% (G:13.95% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (+0.052...+0.081) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 40 seconds
6. Rollout² 24/21 13/11 eq: +0.063 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent: 52.38% (G:12.18% B:0.53%)
47.62% (G:13.57% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (+0.050...+0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 43 seconds

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59555557
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59555557
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 148

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 140
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=a---ABBbE--AcC---b-cb--bA-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: White's 7pt is changed to her 8pt

1. Rollout¹ 13/11 8/5 eq: -0.115
Player:
Opponent: 48.25% (G:11.83% B:0.49%)
51.75% (G:15.81% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.123...-0.108) - [99.8%]
Duration: 1 hour 05 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 8/6 8/5 eq: -0.130 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent: 47.72% (G:13.18% B:0.50%)
52.28% (G:16.44% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.136...-0.123) - [0.2%]
Duration: 58 minutes 34 seconds
3. Rollout² 24/21 8/6 eq: -0.147 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent: 47.74% (G:11.30% B:0.48%)
52.26% (G:17.55% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.158...-0.135) - [0.0%]
Duration: 24 minutes 30 seconds
4. Rollout² 11/6 eq: -0.147 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent: 47.34% (G:11.28% B:0.39%)
52.66% (G:15.12% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.159...-0.135) - [0.0%]
Duration: 27 minutes 27 seconds
5. Rollout² 24/21 13/11 eq: -0.154 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent: 47.63% (G:10.78% B:0.48%)
52.37% (G:18.08% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.168...-0.140) - [0.0%]
Duration: 26 minutes 31 seconds
6. Rollout² 24/22 8/5 eq: -0.158 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent: 47.53% (G:13.27% B:0.65%)
52.47% (G:19.77% B:0.78%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.171...-0.146) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 05 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82805356
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 82805356
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 142

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 140
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=a---ABB-Eb-AcC----bcb--bA-:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 5: White's 18pt is changed to her 16pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/21 8/6 eq: -0.254
Player:
Opponent: 44.61% (G:11.58% B:0.51%)
55.39% (G:19.36% B:0.79%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.260...-0.248) - [92.2%]
Duration: 22 minutes 54 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 24/22 8/5 eq: -0.261 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent: 44.51% (G:11.54% B:0.50%)
55.49% (G:19.60% B:0.80%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.267...-0.254) - [7.7%]
Duration: 21 minutes 46 seconds
3. Rollout² 24/22 11/8 eq: -0.270 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent: 44.28% (G:10.30% B:0.39%)
55.72% (G:18.44% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.278...-0.263) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 48 seconds
4. Rollout³ 24/21 13/11 eq: -0.278 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent: 44.35% (G:10.39% B:0.44%)
55.65% (G:18.90% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.288...-0.269) - [0.0%]
Duration: 8 minutes 13 seconds
5. Rollout⁴ 13/11 8/5 eq: -0.281 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent: 43.56% (G:12.60% B:0.57%)
56.44% (G:17.48% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.296...-0.266) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 06 seconds
6. Rollout⁴ 11/6 eq: -0.291 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent: 43.26% (G:12.44% B:0.50%)
56.74% (G:17.19% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.306...-0.277) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 08 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69358983
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69358983
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

³ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69358983
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

⁴ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69358983
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

Position of the Day 10-03-26
Stick -- Friday, 23 October 2026, at 9:49 a.m.
- Position of the Day 10-03-26
  Colin Owen -- Friday, 23 October 2026, at 12:24 p.m.
- Position of the Day 10-03-26
  John O'Hagan -- Friday, 23 October 2026, at 12:48 p.m.
- Position of the Day 10-03-26
  Francesco -- Friday, 23 October 2026, at 7:21 p.m.
- Position of the Day 10-03-26
  ah_clem -- Friday, 23 October 2026, at 7:33 p.m.
- Position of the Day 10-03-26
  Elizabeth (erichktn @ DG) -- Friday, 23 October 2026, at 10:04 p.m.
- Position of the Day 10-03-26
  Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 24 October 2026, at 4:10 p.m.
- Position of the Day 10-03-26 - Rollout
  Stick -- Monday, 26 October 2026, at 5:02 a.m.
  - Position of the Day 10-03-26 - Rollout
    Colin Owen -- Tuesday, 27 October 2026, at 11:31 p.m.
  - PotD 10-03-26 - Six best plays
    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 30 October 2026, at 11:11 a.m.

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