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PotD 10-02-26 - Six best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 31 October 2026, at 2:25 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-02-26 - Rollout (Stick)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 137 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BCB-B---eB---c-bBbAbA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.	Rollout1	22/18 20/18	eq: +0.094
	Player: Opponent: 52.51% (G:15.61% B:0.52%) 47.49% (G:14.86% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (+0.079...+0.110) - [100.0%] Duration: 58.9 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16	eq: -0.007 (-0.101)
	Player: Opponent: 49.85% (G:12.88% B:0.46%) 50.15% (G:12.90% B:0.50%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.020...+0.007) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are variants. Altogether, six positions with six different best plays represented.

Nack

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 130 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BCB-B---dB---c-cBbAbA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: One White 13pt spare is on her 6pt

1.	Rollout1	24/20 22/20	eq: -0.097
	Player: Opponent: 47.06% (G:9.92% B:0.28%) 52.94% (G:10.32% B:0.24%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.106...-0.089) - [98.6%] Duration: 32 minutes 58 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/22 13/9	eq: -0.110 (-0.013)
	Player: Opponent: 48.08% (G:11.49% B:0.40%) 51.92% (G:14.31% B:0.41%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.117...-0.103) - [1.4%] Duration: 35 minutes 19 seconds
3.	Rollout2	22/18 20/18	eq: -0.124 (-0.027)
	Player: Opponent: 48.42% (G:13.25% B:0.48%) 51.58% (G:20.03% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.135...-0.113) - [0.0%] Duration: 20 minutes 35 seconds
4.	Rollout3	24/22 8/4	eq: -0.128 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 46.95% (G:11.71% B:0.33%) 53.05% (G:12.55% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.142...-0.113) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 02 seconds
5.	Rollout2	22/16	eq: -0.128 (-0.031)
	Player: Opponent: 47.56% (G:11.37% B:0.36%) 52.44% (G:15.34% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.138...-0.119) - [0.0%] Duration: 21 minutes 53 seconds
6.	Rollout3	24/22 5/1*	eq: -0.152 (-0.054)
	Player: Opponent: 46.72% (G:12.39% B:0.34%) 53.28% (G:15.42% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.166...-0.137) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 41 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 95896033 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 95896033 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 95896033 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 123 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BCB-B---cB---c-dBbAbA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Two White 13pt spares are on her 6pt

1.	Rollout1	24/22 13/9	eq: -0.080
	Player: Opponent: 49.12% (G:11.30% B:0.41%) 50.88% (G:15.10% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.094...-0.065) - [100.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 05 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/16	eq: -0.119 (-0.039)
	Player: Opponent: 47.75% (G:11.02% B:0.37%) 52.25% (G:17.59% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.133...-0.104) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 51 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/20 22/20	eq: -0.125 (-0.045)
	Player: Opponent: 46.68% (G:8.92% B:0.28%) 53.32% (G:11.73% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.139...-0.110) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 08 seconds
4.	Rollout1	24/22 8/4	eq: -0.134 (-0.055)
	Player: Opponent: 47.43% (G:11.06% B:0.33%) 52.57% (G:14.13% B:0.38%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.149...-0.119) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 31 seconds
5.	Rollout1	24/22 5/1*	eq: -0.158 (-0.079)
	Player: Opponent: 46.87% (G:10.83% B:0.28%) 53.13% (G:16.55% B:0.46%) Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.176...-0.141) - [0.0%] Duration: 11 minutes 20 seconds
6.	Rollout1	24/22 20/16	eq: -0.210 (-0.131)
	Player: Opponent: 46.53% (G:11.47% B:0.46%) 53.47% (G:19.96% B:0.74%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.224...-0.196) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 19 seconds
7.	Rollout1	22/18 20/18	eq: -0.241 (-0.161)
	Player: Opponent: 46.11% (G:11.41% B:0.41%) 53.89% (G:23.72% B:0.81%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.256...-0.225) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 07 seconds
8.	Rollout1	24/18	eq: -0.243 (-0.164)
	Player: Opponent: 45.10% (G:10.43% B:0.43%) 54.90% (G:19.83% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.260...-0.227) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 41 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 28868913 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 119 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BCB-B---cB---c-bBdAbA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Two White 13pt spares are on her 4pt

1.	Rollout1	24/22 20/16	eq: +0.083
	Player: Opponent: 53.38% (G:13.53% B:0.55%) 46.62% (G:16.76% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.068...+0.099) - [99.9%] Duration: 9 minutes 40 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/22 13/9	eq: +0.051 (-0.033)
	Player: Opponent: 52.40% (G:12.59% B:0.48%) 47.60% (G:15.31% B:0.42%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (+0.036...+0.065) - [0.1%] Duration: 10 minutes 01 second
3.	Rollout1	22/18 20/18	eq: +0.010 (-0.073)
	Player: Opponent: 51.50% (G:12.87% B:0.49%) 48.50% (G:20.22% B:0.54%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.005...+0.025) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 56 seconds
4.	Rollout1	22/16	eq: +0.003 (-0.081)
	Player: Opponent: 51.13% (G:12.55% B:0.48%) 48.87% (G:17.48% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.012...+0.017) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 12 seconds
5.	Rollout1	24/22 8/4	eq: -0.013 (-0.097)
	Player: Opponent: 50.47% (G:12.07% B:0.38%) 49.53% (G:14.09% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.028...+0.001) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 04 seconds
6.	Rollout1	24/22 5/1*	eq: -0.030 (-0.113)
	Player: Opponent: 50.58% (G:12.13% B:0.39%) 49.42% (G:16.27% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.045...-0.014) - [0.0%] Duration: 9 minutes 12 seconds
7.	Rollout1	24/20 22/20	eq: -0.039 (-0.123)
	Player: Opponent: 49.10% (G:10.04% B:0.33%) 50.90% (G:12.29% B:0.29%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.052...-0.026) - [0.0%] Duration: 8 minutes 24 seconds
8.	Rollout1	24/18	eq: -0.099 (-0.183)
	Player: Opponent: 48.70% (G:11.27% B:0.48%) 51.30% (G:18.23% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.114...-0.085) - [0.0%] Duration: 7 minutes 30 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 97014588 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 142 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BCB-B--e-B---c-bBbAbA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: White's 13pt is changed to her 14pt

1.	Rollout1	24/18	eq: +0.230
	Player: Opponent: 54.87% (G:17.52% B:0.72%) 45.13% (G:11.53% B:0.37%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.222...+0.239) - [99.1%] Duration: 34 minutes 35 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/20 22/20	eq: +0.216 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 54.02% (G:15.97% B:0.51%) 45.98% (G:8.75% B:0.26%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (+0.208...+0.224) - [0.8%] Duration: 36 minutes 02 seconds
3.	Rollout2	22/16	eq: +0.209 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 54.46% (G:17.40% B:0.61%) 45.54% (G:12.11% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.199...+0.218) - [0.0%] Duration: 29 minutes 38 seconds
4.	Rollout2	22/18 20/18	eq: +0.206 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 55.29% (G:18.15% B:0.64%) 44.71% (G:14.40% B:0.55%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.196...+0.216) - [0.0%] Duration: 28 minutes 22 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 30918467 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller 2 3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 30918467 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 143 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--BCB-Bb--cB---c-bBbAbA-:0:0:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 5: Two White 13pt spares are on her 16pt

1.	Rollout1	22/16	eq: +0.077
	Player: Opponent: 51.25% (G:16.04% B:0.63%) 48.75% (G:12.74% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.067...+0.087) - [100.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 13 seconds
2.	Rollout1	22/18 20/18	eq: +0.048 (-0.029)
	Player: Opponent: 51.15% (G:16.46% B:0.69%) 48.85% (G:16.10% B:0.66%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.036...+0.060) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 18 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/20 22/20	eq: +0.044 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 50.08% (G:14.43% B:0.51%) 49.92% (G:10.28% B:0.32%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.035...+0.054) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 10 seconds
4.	Rollout1	24/18	eq: +0.034 (-0.043)
	Player: Opponent: 50.09% (G:15.55% B:0.68%) 49.91% (G:12.97% B:0.44%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.022...+0.046) - [0.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 37 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 62224199 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

• Position of the Day 10-02-26
  Stick -- Wednesday, 21 October 2026, at 9:05 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-02-26
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 21 October 2026, at 10:49 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-02-26
    Francesco -- Thursday, 22 October 2026, at 4:56 a.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-02-26
    ah_clem -- Friday, 23 October 2026, at 7:26 p.m.
    • Position of the Day 10-02-26
      ah_clem -- Friday, 23 October 2026, at 7:28 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-02-26
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 24 October 2026, at 4:02 p.m.
  • Position of the Day 10-02-26 - Rollout
    Stick -- Sunday, 25 October 2026, at 4:06 a.m.
    • PotD 10-02-26 - Six best plays
      Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 31 October 2026, at 2:25 p.m.