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PotD 10-09-26 - Variants

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 1 November 2026, at 1:30 a.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-09-26 - Rollout (Stick)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 107
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 149
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BaBBB----BAb-----bcbcBbB-:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1.Rollout110/6eq: -0.712
Player:
Opponent:		26.10% (G:3.08% B:0.08%)
73.90% (G:32.28% B:4.44%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.722...-0.702) - [100.0%]
Duration: 19.6 seconds
2.Rollout110/8(2)eq: -0.768 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		22.43% (G:2.80% B:0.07%)
77.57% (G:29.61% B:2.98%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.776...-0.760) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16.4 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.

Below are two variants. Variant 1 is a super-contraster (swing of .172 between best plays). For Variant 2, can you figure out why 5/3*(2)) is the best play?

Nack





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 113
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 149
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BaBBB----BAba----bbbcBbB-:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 6pt spare is on her 12pt

1.Rollout110/9(2) 3/2*(2) eq: -0.667
Player:
Opponent:		25.25% (G:7.43% B:0.12%)
74.75% (G:31.24% B:3.17%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.676...-0.659) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout14/2*(2) eq: -0.690 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		24.71% (G:7.36% B:0.09%)
75.29% (G:31.55% B:3.36%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.700...-0.681) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
3.Rollout111/9 3/2*(2) eq: -0.699 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		24.47% (G:7.02% B:0.08%)
75.53% (G:31.84% B:3.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.708...-0.690) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 43 seconds
4.Rollout110/8 3/2*(2) eq: -0.729 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		24.33% (G:6.54% B:0.10%)
75.67% (G:33.72% B:4.04%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.738...-0.720) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
5.Rollout111/9 10/9 3/2* eq: -0.778 (-0.111)
Player:
Opponent:		24.42% (G:3.20% B:0.05%)
75.58% (G:34.97% B:4.65%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.788...-0.769) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 05 seconds
6.Rollout110/6eq: -0.784 (-0.116)
Player:
Opponent:		23.02% (G:2.78% B:0.07%)
76.98% (G:32.63% B:3.84%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.794...-0.774) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 51 seconds
7.Rollout110/8(2)eq: -0.786 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:		21.92% (G:3.34% B:0.07%)
78.08% (G:31.00% B:3.23%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.795...-0.777) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 26 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 30918467
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 147
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBaBB----BAb-----bcbcBbB-:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: Higher shift

1.Rollout15/3*(2) eq: -0.817
Player:
Opponent:		21.22% (G:3.00% B:0.05%)
78.78% (G:32.06% B:3.30%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.821...-0.813) - [99.2%]
Duration: 5 minutes 57 seconds
2.Rollout110/9(2) 4/3*(2) eq: -0.824 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		20.64% (G:3.45% B:0.08%)
79.36% (G:31.90% B:3.00%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.828...-0.820) - [0.6%]
Duration: 5 minutes 45 seconds
3.Rollout111/9 10/9 4/3* eq: -0.826 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		23.38% (G:1.73% B:0.04%)
76.62% (G:35.69% B:4.89%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.831...-0.822) - [0.1%]
Duration: 7 minutes 11 seconds
4.Rollout111/8 4/3* eq: -0.827 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		23.62% (G:1.56% B:0.03%)
76.38% (G:36.02% B:5.05%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.832...-0.822) - [0.1%]
Duration: 6 minutes 37 seconds
5.Rollout210/9(2) 5/3* eq: -0.831 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		23.24% (G:1.70% B:0.03%)
76.76% (G:35.91% B:4.98%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.838...-0.824) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 20 seconds
6.Rollout210/6eq: -0.831 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		22.25% (G:1.46% B:0.03%)
77.75% (G:33.72% B:4.17%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.837...-0.825) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 42 seconds
7.Rollout211/9 4/3*(2) eq: -0.832 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		20.75% (G:2.63% B:0.05%)
79.25% (G:32.17% B:3.18%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.838...-0.826) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 02 seconds
8.Rollout311/8 10/9eq: -0.839 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		22.19% (G:1.15% B:0.02%)
77.81% (G:34.25% B:4.38%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.847...-0.830) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds
9.Rollout310/8 4/3*(2) eq: -0.842 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		21.01% (G:2.57% B:0.04%)
78.99% (G:33.50% B:3.72%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.850...-0.834) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
10.Rollout311/9 5/3* eq: -0.847 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		23.21% (G:1.40% B:0.02%)
76.79% (G:36.58% B:5.41%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.857...-0.837) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 34 seconds
11.Rollout311/10 5/3* 4/3eq: -0.848 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		21.80% (G:1.42% B:0.03%)
78.20% (G:34.62% B:4.19%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.857...-0.839) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
12.Rollout310/9 10/7eq: -0.850 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		22.02% (G:1.22% B:0.03%)
77.98% (G:34.74% B:4.47%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.859...-0.841) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
13.Rollout310/8(2)eq: -0.851 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		19.61% (G:1.79% B:0.03%)
80.39% (G:30.61% B:3.11%)		Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.859...-0.843) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99813067
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99813067
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

3 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 99813067
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

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