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44 for Blue

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 4 November 2026, at 2:30 p.m.

In Response To: 44 for Blue (John O'Hagan)

An awkward roll. The race will be 74-70 after this play with us behind and not on roll. Maintain contact, or try to race?

Holding the midpoint gives us the most chances to hit the runner, but burying checkers on low points hurts the race equity.

I count 16 rolls that force her to leave a direct shot if we hold the midpoint. That seems to outweigh the race equity lost due to burial.

13/1 5/1 looks best, if a bit too obvious if QF is taken into account. Not doing QF here.

Make the ace point, and hope to hit a shot.

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