Keeping the mid makes White's escape more difficult. It's a close choice between 13/5 8/4(2) or 13/1 5/1. Your hitting chances on the next sequence for these two plays are about 15%/20%. Your racing chances are better with the former play if you don't hit because making the ace leaves you with 2 extra outfield crossovers. The improved racing chances after 13/5 8/4(2) are enough to more than make up for the reduced hitting chances.
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/5 8/4(2) | eq: -0.314 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.16% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)
59.84% (G:0.26% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.322...-0.306) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6.0 seconds |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/1 5/1 | eq: -0.340 (-0.026) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.64% (G:0.36% B:0.01%)
60.36% (G:0.17% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.347...-0.333) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6.2 seconds |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 13/9(2) 13/5 | eq: -0.416 (-0.102) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 36.26% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
63.74% (G:0.05% B:0.00%) | Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.424...-0.408) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2.4 seconds |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 13/9(3) 5/1 | eq: -0.493 (-0.179) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 33.43% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
66.57% (G:0.31% B:0.00%) | |
|
| 5. | 4-ply | 13/9(2) 8/4(2) | eq: -0.544 (-0.230) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 31.74% (G:0.44% B:0.01%)
68.26% (G:2.07% B:0.01%) | |
|
| |
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
First 12 moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Search interval: Large
|
