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Position of the Day 10-17-26 - Easy Math

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Friday, 6 November 2026, at 4:56 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-17-26 - Easy Math (Stick)

We're more than 50% to win and it's almost a last-roll position. If we roll a 21 then it looks like we're eating a 16 cube but other than that white doesn't have a re-whip. Seems close enough to ship it, and we still have very good chances if we do eat a 16. Cube seems clear.

Another quick and dirty way to look at it is that it's almost an N-roll position with N=2 which is a clear D/P. It's not quite that since we're not always off in 2 rolls, but a 2-roll position is about 14% GWC. Where does white get the other ~7% to eke out a take?

At N=2, all the wins come from the trailer rolling doubles while the leader does not. So ignoring those outcomes, We lose if we roll consecutive aces and deuces with many of those not losing. ~50% to roll an ace or deuce and 25% to do it twice, but most of those still bear off in two, say 2/3rds, so we get about a third of 25% for white winning without throwing doubles.

8% plus 14% adds up to 22%. Looks very close. Otb I'd pass without thinking about it this hard. Per the above, I'll go with take, but barely.

D/T.

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