What? Why? - Six best plays

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What? Why? - Six best plays

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 7 November 2026, at 8:05 p.m.

In Response To: Position of the Day 10-13-26 - What? Why? - Rollout (Stick)

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 127

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BBBBA----eB---cBe-b-AA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Original position

1. Rollout¹ 23/20 eq: -0.284
Player:
Opponent: 42.76% (G:10.51% B:0.25%)
57.24% (G:12.34% B:0.32%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.291...-0.278) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 48 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 7/4 eq: -0.309 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent: 41.54% (G:10.73% B:0.25%)
58.46% (G:12.84% B:0.33%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.316...-0.303) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 45 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 23/22 7/5 eq: -0.319 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent: 41.60% (G:10.61% B:0.24%)
58.40% (G:13.21% B:0.34%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.326...-0.312) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 39 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 13/10 eq: -0.360 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent: 41.20% (G:9.62% B:0.26%)
58.80% (G:13.76% B:0.45%) Conf.: ą 0.007 (-0.368...-0.353) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 47 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 24/22 23/22 eq: -0.483 (-0.199)
Player:
Opponent: 36.89% (G:6.47% B:0.15%)
63.11% (G:8.17% B:0.15%) Conf.: ą 0.006 (-0.489...-0.477) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 19 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Above is Stick's rollout of the original position.
Below are contrasting variants. Altogether, six positions with six different best plays.
Nack

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 132

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BBBBA----fB---bBe-b-AA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 1: White's 8pt checker is on her 13pt

1. Rollout¹ 23/22 7/5 eq: -0.032
Player:
Opponent: 48.01% (G:15.68% B:0.32%)
51.99% (G:11.33% B:0.34%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.039...-0.026) - [99.7%]
Duration: 10 minutes 55 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 23/20 eq: -0.047 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent: 48.20% (G:14.95% B:0.37%)
51.80% (G:11.00% B:0.33%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.054...-0.039) - [0.3%]
Duration: 11 minutes 59 seconds
3. Rollout² 7/4 eq: -0.067 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent: 47.10% (G:14.79% B:0.33%)
52.90% (G:10.75% B:0.30%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.080...-0.055) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 10 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78835362
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 78835362
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 125

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BBBBA----dBa--cBe-b-AA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 2: A White 13pt spare is on her 11pt

1. Rollout¹ 13/10 eq: -0.348
Player:
Opponent: 41.53% (G:9.94% B:0.31%)
58.47% (G:13.93% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.010 (-0.358...-0.338) - [100.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 04 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 23/22 13/11 eq: -0.371 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent: 41.12% (G:9.57% B:0.29%)
58.88% (G:15.11% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.009 (-0.380...-0.362) - [0.0%]
Duration: 30 minutes 36 seconds
3. Rollout² 23/20 eq: -0.378 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent: 40.96% (G:9.88% B:0.30%)
59.04% (G:14.48% B:0.46%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.391...-0.365) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 31 seconds
4. Rollout² 23/22 7/5 eq: -0.388 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent: 40.01% (G:9.84% B:0.26%)
59.99% (G:14.33% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.400...-0.375) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 01 second
5. Rollout² 7/4 eq: -0.390 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent: 40.08% (G:9.66% B:0.26%)
59.92% (G:13.67% B:0.36%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.404...-0.377) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 43 seconds

¹ 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84467793
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 84467793
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BBBBA----cBb--cBe-b-AA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 3: Two White 13pt spares are on her 11pt

1. Rollout¹ 23/22 13/11 eq: -0.405
Player:
Opponent: 40.36% (G:9.60% B:0.33%)
59.64% (G:17.65% B:0.73%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.412...-0.399) - [99.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 09 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/10 eq: -0.418 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent: 39.97% (G:9.52% B:0.33%)
60.03% (G:16.61% B:0.64%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.425...-0.410) - [0.9%]
Duration: 47 minutes 54 seconds
3. Rollout² 23/22 7/5 eq: -0.434 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent: 38.83% (G:9.48% B:0.26%)
61.17% (G:15.39% B:0.47%) Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.449...-0.419) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 09 seconds
4. Rollout² 24/23 13/11 eq: -0.441 (-0.036)
Player:
Opponent: 38.45% (G:8.87% B:0.25%)
61.55% (G:11.86% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.454...-0.428) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 05 seconds
5. Rollout² 7/4 eq: -0.452 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent: 38.76% (G:9.33% B:0.26%)
61.24% (G:15.21% B:0.53%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.466...-0.439) - [0.0%]
Duration: 16 minutes 51 seconds
6. Rollout² 23/20 eq: -0.453 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent: 39.54% (G:9.09% B:0.29%)
60.46% (G:16.63% B:0.62%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.466...-0.440) - [0.0%]
Duration: 18 minutes 24 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51357663
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 51357663
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 119

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BBBBA----cB--bcBe-b-AA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 4: Two White 13pt spares are on her 9pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/23 13/11 eq: -0.529
Player:
Opponent: 36.05% (G:7.21% B:0.23%)
63.95% (G:11.57% B:0.45%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.536...-0.523) - [94.0%]
Duration: 36 minutes 01 second
2. Rollout¹ 24/23 7/5 eq: -0.537 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent: 35.50% (G:7.51% B:0.20%)
64.50% (G:11.43% B:0.43%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.543...-0.530) - [5.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 51 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 13/10 eq: -0.541 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent: 36.89% (G:7.51% B:0.27%)
63.11% (G:16.22% B:0.61%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.547...-0.534) - [0.7%]
Duration: 36 minutes 03 seconds
4. Rollout² 23/20 eq: -0.549 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent: 36.78% (G:7.35% B:0.25%)
63.22% (G:16.44% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.562...-0.536) - [0.3%]
Duration: 15 minutes 18 seconds
5. Rollout² 13/11 7/6 eq: -0.581 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent: 35.61% (G:7.48% B:0.22%)
64.39% (G:16.14% B:0.59%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.594...-0.568) - [0.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 46 seconds
6. Rollout² 7/4 eq: -0.581 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent: 35.73% (G:7.42% B:0.22%)
64.27% (G:16.29% B:0.49%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.595...-0.567) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 16 seconds
7. Rollout² 23/22 13/11 eq: -0.588 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent: 36.18% (G:7.18% B:0.27%)
63.82% (G:19.41% B:0.76%) Conf.: ± 0.014 (-0.602...-0.574) - [0.0%]
Duration: 13 minutes 05 seconds
8. Rollout² 24/22 23/22 eq: -0.615 (-0.085)
Player:
Opponent: 33.59% (G:4.96% B:0.14%)
66.41% (G:8.47% B:0.16%) Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.628...-0.601) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 44 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76264440
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 76264440
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 115

Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver

pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1

XGID=---BBBBA----bB--ccBe-b-AA-:0:0:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
Variant 5: Three White 13pt spares are on her 9pt

1. Rollout¹ 24/22 23/22 eq: -0.638
Player:
Opponent: 32.88% (G:4.59% B:0.13%)
67.12% (G:8.39% B:0.17%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.643...-0.632) - [99.8%]
Duration: 58 minutes 01 second
2. Rollout¹ 24/23 13/11 eq: -0.650 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent: 32.70% (G:5.47% B:0.17%)
67.30% (G:11.76% B:0.40%) Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.656...-0.644) - [0.2%]
Duration: 45 minutes 55 seconds
3. Rollout² 24/23 7/5 eq: -0.669 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent: 32.16% (G:5.72% B:0.17%)
67.84% (G:11.63% B:0.39%) Conf.: ± 0.012 (-0.681...-0.656) - [0.0%]
Duration: 17 minutes 25 seconds
4. Rollout² 23/20 eq: -0.712 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent: 32.53% (G:6.12% B:0.23%)
67.47% (G:18.05% B:0.52%) Conf.: ± 0.018 (-0.730...-0.694) - [0.0%]
Duration: 20 minutes 36 seconds

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 87787358
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

² 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 87787358
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Messages In This Thread

Position of the Day 10-13-26 - What? Why?
Stick -- Monday, 2 November 2026, at 8:12 a.m.
- Position of the Day 10-13-26 - What? Why?
  John O'Hagan -- Monday, 2 November 2026, at 1:19 p.m.
- Position of the Day 10-13-26 - What? Why?
  ah_clem -- Monday, 2 November 2026, at 2:08 p.m.
- Position of the Day 10-13-26 - What? Why?
  Francesco -- Monday, 2 November 2026, at 5:17 p.m.
- Position of the Day 10-13-26 - What? Why?
  OpenWheel -- Tuesday, 3 November 2026, at 6:27 p.m.
- Position of the Day 10-13-26 - What? Why?
  Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 3 November 2026, at 6:32 p.m.
- Position of the Day 10-13-26 - What? Why? - Rollout
  Stick -- Wednesday, 4 November 2026, at 5:21 a.m.
  - What? Why? - Six best plays
    Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 7 November 2026, at 8:05 p.m.

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