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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 4 February 2007, at 6:27 p.m.

In Response To: Stick/Weaver (Stick)

First of all the theory of TMP is usually flawed. I'd much rather have TMP than NEP! In general a point will be worth more than flexibility, TMP reminds me of duplication, both very useful if you know when to employ them, which is rarely, but overused in general.

If anything in this position I have TMP which is why Paul should play safe & standard, make me play my turn. As Neil noted my 6-4 sort of sucks if he makes the point and on top of that I have nothing to attack with some of my 3s, 4s, 5s if he doesn't move up to my 3 pt. I'll have to concede something probably leaving a blot somewhere unless I get a real lucky number.


Match to 11, Blue leads 6 to 5
152
164
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 13/11 9/5 0.451
1.1% 19.7% 61.0% 39.0% 8.9% 0.3%
Live cube rollout: 0.495
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.334 ±0.013, - live cube: 0.495 ±0.031. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 37992 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.
* 2 R 24/22 9/5 0.396 (-0.055)
1.2% 18.9% 59.8% 40.2% 8.8% 0.3%
Live cube rollout: 0.461
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.306 ±0.013, - live cube: 0.461 ±0.030. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1296 games (equiv. 37602 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, random seed, with race database.

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